31 Jul 2024 | 09:43 AM UTC
DRC: Clashes likely to continue in North Kivu Province through August despite ceasefire from Aug. 4 /update 20
Further clashes are likely in North Kivu Province, DRC, through late August despite ceasefire agreement from Aug. 4.
Armed clashes and increased military operations will likely persist in the North Kivu Province through at least late August despite a ceasefire agreement from Aug. 4. On July 30, the Angolan Presidency announced that talks between the DRC and Rwanda in Luanda, Angola, enabled the truce. Further details are limited. It is unclear whether armed groups, including the M23, will abide by the ceasefire and how long it may last.
In recent months, clashes and bombings involving the DRC Armed Forces (FARDC) and affiliated militias, international forces, and the M23 rebels have been reported in the province, including near Sake and Goma. At least five South African soldiers part of the Southern African Development Community Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC) were killed and dozens of others injured since February, including during mortar attacks near Sake and Goma. Artillery shells falling around camps in and around Goma have also killed dozens since February.
Roads to and from Goma and Sake are often either blocked by rebels or due to clashes, disrupting the transport of goods and people with no notice and sometimes for days. The exact status of the roads is subject to constant change. There are still concerns that M23 militants will attempt to capture Sake, which may significantly disrupt the supply of goods to Sake and Goma from the north, west, and south, leaving only the land border with Rwanda as the remaining road exit for the region. As of July 31, Sake and Goma remain under the control of the government, which is concentrating most of its forces there.
Further clashes will likely concentrate in the Masisi, Nyiragongo, and Rutshuru territories surrounding Goma and Sake. Officials could implement movement-restrictive measures in response to developments. Renewed fighting may disrupt main axes and hinder goods transport. Locals may stage further protests in the region, including Goma, to denounce the perceived inaction of FARDC or foreign forces. These demonstrations have become increasingly frequent and have sometimes left several participants or security forces injured or killed.
Consult local security partners on the viability of traveling in the region. Reconfirm the status of roads and border crossings before departure. Travel in convoy and during daylight hours only. Adhere to directives issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions.
The M23 group claims to defend Tutsi interests and is seeking to pressure the government to honor a peace agreement signed in 2013, which allows the reintegration of the armed forces into society, among other issues, against a historical backdrop of ethnic tensions. Following several years of relative respite, the M23 rebel group remerged in late 2021. The M23 has repeatedly asked for direct dialogue with DRC authorities, which have so far refused, making a conflict resolution difficult in the near term.
Since the M23 resurgence, tensions have increased between Rwanda and its neighbors, particularly with DRC. DRC officials have accused Rwanda of supporting the rebels. Several cross-border incidents involving DRC and Rwanda occurred, including minor exchanges of fire between DRC and Rwandan security forces at the border crossing between Goma (DRC) and Gisenyi (Rwanda).
The situation has drawn growing international attention. In February, the US attributed the renewed clashes to M23 rebels supported by Rwanda and called for the departure of all Rwandan forces and their military equipment in eastern DRC, citing the threat to civilians, UN and humanitarian actors, as well as commercial flights. The US also called on DRC to cease cooperation with the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) armed group. Multiple human rights organizations, the UN, the EU, and the US had previously denounced the alleged support provided by Rwanda to M23 rebels.
