Israel, Lebanon, Syria: Cross-border violence to continue and could potentially escalate into late August /update 18

Tensions along the Israel-Lebanon frontier, as well as cross-border violence between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Lebanese Hizballah (LH), will remain unpredictable and could intensify through at least late August. Major escalations in the conflict between Israel and the LH militant group have greatly increased after a rocket attack hit a soccer field in the town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on July 27, killing at least 12 people and wounding some 20 others. IDF retaliated with an airstrike targeting Fuad Shukr, the senior LH commander allegedly responsible for the Golan Heights attack, in the southern suburb of Beirut late July 30. Early July 31, Israel also targeted a building in Tehran, killing Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas' political leader. These latest targeted strikes will likely lead to retaliatory actions from both LH and Iran, raising the risk of a broader regional conflagration.

As of late July, intensive diplomatic efforts by the US and French governments to avoid escalation into a broader conflict remain ongoing. Several governments, including France and the US, had advised their citizens to avoid all travel to Lebanon due to the deteriorating security situation in the country amid the conflict between Israel and the LH. Moreover, several nations, including the UK, Australia, Canada, Germany, and the Netherlands, have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon while commercial flights remain available, pointing to the potential for rapid deterioration of the already volatile security situation.

The LH has asserted that it would not stop its attacks on Israel until a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war halts fighting in the Gaza Strip. However, given Haniyeh was reportedly a vocal proponent in favor of a ceasefire, his assassination has diminished hopes of an imminent ceasefire. The Israeli government, on the other hand, has increased the number of targeted drone and missile strikes it has been conducting against key Hamas and LH political and military leaders; Israeli airstrikes have killed multiple senior LH and Hamas leaders in different parts of Lebanon in recent weeks.

Cross-border fire involving the IDF and Syrian military forces will likely continue to occur periodically in the Golan Heights region. The IDF will also almost certainly continue targeting sites deeper within Syria. The IDF regularly targets Damascus International Airport (DAM) and Aleppo International Airport (ALP), and has previously caused serious material damage to the landing strips.

Unless averted, any broader conflict that might develop will prompt severe commercial disruptions in the nations directly involved. Several commercial airlines, including but not limited to Air France (AF) and Lufthansa (LH), have suspended their flights into Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY) for the coming days. Further flight disruptions are likely, and as tensions escalate, BEY would likely close, making leaving Lebanon extremely difficult; neighboring countries could also close their airspace, resulting in widespread flight cancellations and disruptions. Authorities could also impose further movement restrictions or evacuations in the Israel, Syria, or Lebanon border region. The movement of military personnel and checkpoints would probably further disrupt travel along primary and secondary road routes. Fighting could impact utilities, including power and water supply.