Israel, Lebanon, Syria: Probability of conflict escalation between Israel and Lebanese Hizballah spikes after rocket attack on Majdal Shams, Golan Heights, July 27 /update 17

The likelihood of a major escalation in the conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hizballah (LH) militant group has greatly increased and will probably remain at elevated levels into at least early August after a rocket attack hit a soccer field in the town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on July 27, killing at least 11 people and wounding dozens of others. Israeli officials have attributed the attack to the LH, while the LH, following conflicting reports regarding whether it had claimed responsibility for the assault, has alleged that it had no role in the strike.

Since cross-border exchanges of strikes increased in frequency and severity between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and LH in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas-led Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel, both sides have generally calibrated their attacks to avoid a broader escalation of hostilities into outright war while using increasingly belligerent rhetoric. The July 27 strike on Majdal Shams marks both the clearest deviation from the post-Oct. 7 status quo along the Israeli-Lebanese border as well as the deadliest attack on Israeli-controlled territory since Oct. 7. Several Israeli ministers and members of the Knesset had called for retaliatory action against LH as of late July 27, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing that the LH would "pay a heavy price." Additionally, IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari asserted that Israel would prepare a response against the LH following the attack. Although the IDF did not immediately indicate what their response would entail, an unnamed Israeli security source reportedly asserted that Israel will forcefully retaliate following the rocket strike, "but we don't intend to spark a war." Regardless of the IDF's intended response to the Majdal Shams attack, the range of retaliatory actions that the IDF will likely consider that would avoid threatening a major escalation in the conflict with the LH has considerably narrowed.

As of late July 27, several governments had advised their citizens to avoid all travel to Lebanon due to the deteriorating security situation in the country amid the conflict between Israel and the LH, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK. Others, including the US, have advised their citizens to avoid all travel to southern Lebanon and the border with Syria. Several of the abovementioned governments had also advised their citizens against traveling to various parts of Israel, including areas near the country's borders with Lebanon and Syria.

The LH has asserted that it would not stop its attacks on Israel until a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war halts fighting in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli government, on the other hand, has increased the number of targeted drone and missile strikes it has been conducting against key Hamas and LH political and military leaders; Israeli airstrikes have killed multiple senior LH and Hamas leaders in different parts of Lebanon in recent weeks. Tel Aviv has also vowed to take further action in response to projectile attacks on Israel.

Cross-border fire involving the IDF and Syrian military forces will likely occur periodically in the Golan Heights region. The IDF will also almost certainly continue targeting sites deeper within Syria. The IDF regularly targets Damascus International Airport (DAM) and Aleppo International Airport (ALP), and has previously caused serious material damage to the landing strips.

Any broader conflict that develops would likely prompt severe commercial disruptions in the nations directly involved. Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY) would likely close, making leaving Lebanon extremely difficult; neighboring countries could also close their respective airspaces, resulting in widespread flight disruptions. Additionally, authorities could impose further movement restrictions or evacuations in the Israel-Lebanon-Syria border region. The movement of military personnel and any checkpoints that authorities set up would probably further disrupt travel along primary and secondary road routes. Fighting could also impact utilities, including power and water supply.