Philippine Sea: Typhoon Gaemi is tracking northward in Philippine Sea toward Okinawa Prefecture early July 23 /update 3

Typhoon Gaemi, known in the Philippines as Carina, is tracking northward over the Philippine Sea early July 23. As of 12:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 665 km (413 miles) south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will turn to track northwestward and make a close approach as a typhoon to Japan's Yaeyama Islands, Okinawa Prefecture, early July 24, before continuing northwestward and making landfall over Yilan County in northeastern Taiwan late July 24. The system will likely weaken slightly over land but remain at typhoon strength, continue northwestward, and make another landfall as a typhoon over Fujian Province, China, early July 25. After landfall, Gaemi is likely to weaken rapidly as it tracks northwestward across Fujian and then Jiangxi provinces in China through July 26 before dissipating over northern Jiangxi Province early July 27. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin warning of rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern and eastern mainland Cagayan, and Ilocos Sur provinces through noon July 24 and across Batanes Province through noon July 25. Lesser rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) is forecast across most of the rest of the far northeastern Philippines. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 is in place over Batanes Province, while Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1 is in effect over Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, eastern Isabela, northern Apayao, northern Ilocos Norte, northern Aurora, and northern Catanduanes provinces.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued red (middle level on a three-tier scale) high wave and storm surge warnings across the Yaeyama Islands, Okinawa Prefecture. Yellow warnings are in place across the rest of Okinawa Prefecture.

Authorities in Iloilo City, Iloilo Province, Philippines, have issued preemptive evacuation orders for residents in coastal villages of the city as well as Molo and Arevalo districts due to heavy rainfall and possible flooding. At least 61 houses in several coastal barangays in Iloilo City have been damaged by large waves, affecting around 560 families. Airlines in the Philippines have canceled some flights connecting Manila with Basco and Tuguegarao due to unfavorable weather conditions. Some classes across parts of Luzon are suspended due to the severe weather.

Authorities in Taiwan suspended all ferry services connecting Taitung and Green, Orchid, and Xiaoliuqiu islands July 23-25. Train services between Alishan and Chiayi stations will be suspended from July 23, while services within the Alishan Recreation Area will be suspended July 24-25. Taiwan suspended parts of its annual Han Kuang war games in advance of the storm.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.