Russia: Adverse weather forecast across southwestern regions through at least July 25

Severe weather is forecast across parts of southwestern Russia through at least July 25. Over the coming days, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast across the North-Caucasian and Southern federal districts. Strong winds, lightning, and possible hail may accompany storms. Heavy downpours may lead to flooding in low-lying areas, and strong winds may cause property damage and power outages.

As of July 22, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued the following weather warnings across the affected area:

• Orange heavy rainfall warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Astrakhan Oblast, Karachay-Cherkess Republic, and Stavropol Kray,

• Orange thunderstorm/other hazard warning: Krasnodar Kray.

• Orange dry wind warnings: Rostov Oblast.

• Yellow heavy rain warnings: Rostov Oblast and Kabardino-Balkar Republic.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Republic of Adygea, Republic of Kalmykia, Volgograd Oblast, Chechen Republic, Kabardino-Balkar Republic, Karachay-Cherkess Republic, Republic of Dagestan, Republic of Ingushetia, and Stavropol Kray.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Rostov Oblast, Volgograd Oblast, Chechen Republic, Kabardino-Balkar Republic, Karachay-Cherkess Republic, and Republic of Ingushetia.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

Authorities may issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, and/or landslides impact utility networks.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout the affected area. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles.

Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.