Japan: Typhoon Shanshan tracking northward across Philippine Sea as of early Aug. 28 /update 4

Typhoon Shanshan is tracking northward across the Philippine Sea early Aug. 28. As of 12:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 424 km (264 miles) south of Sasebo.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will maintain its strength and make landfall over Kuchinoshima in the Tokara Islands the afternoon of Aug. 28 before weakening slightly but remaining at typhoon strength and making another landfall over near the border between Kagoshima and Kumamoto prefectures late Aug. 29. After landfall, the system is likely to weaken into a tropical storm as its tracks eastward across Kyushu and exits into the Philippine Sea late Aug. 30 before making two landfalls over far southwestern and far southeastern Kochi Prefecture early Aug. 31 and early Sept. 1, continuing northeastward and making a subsequent landfall over Wakayama Prefecture early Sept. 1. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Aug. 28, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued a bulletin warning that the typhoon will continue to develop and approach southern Kyushu through Aug. 29, bringing strong winds, high waves, landslides, and flooding. The heaviest rainfall of 60 cm (24 inches) is forecast across southern Kyushu through Aug. 30. Swells and heavy seas are likely across western Japan; the highest waves of up to 10 meters (33 feet) are forecast over the Amami and southern Kyushu regions Aug. 28.

The JMA has issued the following watches and warnings:

• Purple (highest level on a three-tier scale) storm, storm surge, and high wave warnings: Amami, Osumi, Satsuma, Tanegashima, and Yakushima regions in Kagoshima Prefecture.

• Purple landslide warnings: southeastern Miyazaki and Shizuoka prefectures as well as Tanegashima and Yakushima regions in Kagoshima Prefecture.

• Red heavy rain, landslide, storm, storm surge, and high wave warnings: eastern Aichi, western Ehime, the rest of Kagoshima, the rest of Miyazaki, eastern Oita, and northern Tochigi prefectures.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Authorities have issued purple evacuation orders (the second highest level on a five-tier scale) for Amami, Hioki, Ibusuki, Minamikyushu, Soo, Tarumizu cities, Mishima, Toshima, and Yamato villages, and Nakatane and Yakushima towns in Kagoshima Prefecture, Hamamatsu, Kosai, and Makinohara cities in Shizuoka Prefecture, Gamagori City in Aichi Prefecture, and Miyazaki City in Miyazaki Prefecture. Red evacuation orders for the elderly and other vulnerable people remain in effect for some locations in Aichi, Kagoshima, Miyazaki, Shiga, and Shizuoka prefectures.

A landslide in Gamagori City, Aichi Prefecture, late Aug. 27 buried five people; two have been rescued, but three people remain missing.

Japan Airlines (JL) has canceled more than 100 domestic flights Aug. 27-28, mainly at Kagoshima (KOJ), Amami (ASJ), Fukuoka (FUK), and Miyazaki (KMI) airports and six international flights connecting Kansai Airport (KIX) and Chubu Centrair International Airport (NGO) with Shanghai Pudong International Airport (PVG) in China and Suvarnabhumi Airport (BKK) in Bangkok, Thailand Aug. 28. All Nippon Airways (NH) has canceled at least 80 flights mainly at Kagoshima (KOJ) and Miyazaki (KMI) airports Aug. 28-30. Various other airlines have warned that flight cancellations and delays are possible across western Japan over the coming days.

Authorities will suspend operations on the Kyushu Shinkansen between Kumamoto and Kagoshima Chuo stations late Aug. 28-29 and may suspend operations between Hakata and Kumamoto stations and the entire Nishi Kyushu Shinkansen line Aug. 29. The Tokaido and Sanyo Shinkansen will be operating at reduced speeds on some sections Aug. 28 and may suspend operations depending on the weather conditions. Sanyo Shinkansen may experience planned service suspensions or long delays late Aug. 29-31, while the Tokaido Shinkansen may experience delays Aug. 30-31. Some portions of Tomei Expressway and Shin-Tomei Expressway in Shizuoka and Aichi prefectures are closed to traffic.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.