25 Oct 2024 | 12:59 PM UTC
Mozambique: Further protests, violence likely through October following election results /update 6
Further opposition protests likely in Mozambique through October following Frelimo electoral victory; increased vigilance required.
Further opposition protests are likely in Mozambique through October following the announcement of the general election results. On Oct. 24, the National Electoral Commission (Comissao Nacional de Eleicoes, CNE) announced that the ruling Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo) party largely won the Oct. 9 election. The results are yet to be certified by the Constitutional Council. The opposition Optimistic People for the Development of Mozambique (Podemos), United Patriotic Front (FPU), and Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) have rejected the results. On Oct. 24, protests occurred in Beira, Maputo, Nacala, Pemba, and Chimoio immediately following the announcement with reports of road blockages and acts of minor arson; other locations were likely similarly affected. Security services reportedly fired tear gas and live ammunition. At least one person died in Nacala. As of Oct. 25, Mozambican border authorities have reportedly prevented freight travel through the Lebombo border post with South Africa; no other border disruptions have been noted.
Opposition strikes and protests are likely through at least October. Protest activity will likely be concentrated in large urban areas, such as Maputo, Beira, and Nampula, as well as the northern provinces of Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Zambezia. In Maputo, movements will likely concentrate along Joaquim Chissano Avenue. Demonstrations could draw thousands of participants and lead to road blockages and acts of arson; shutdowns could lead to business and public services closures. Increased security is likely nationwide, especially near protest locations. Security measures may include checkpoints, increased patrolling in urban centers, border restrictions, and curfews. Violence between opposing party members or involving security services is likely and will probably pose an incidental danger to bystanders. Peripheral incidents of criminal violence, not necessarily connected with the election, are possible.
Some foreign diplomatic missions have also warned of potential rallies and disruptions and advised their citizens to minimize unnecessary movements during such events.
Exercise caution while operating in Mozambique through October. Avoid all gatherings, political events, election-related activities, and concentrations of security forces. Avoid displaying overtly yellow clothes as they may be associated with the political opposition. Exercise caution near police offices and government buildings. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Reconfirm appointments and plan for increased employee absenteeism during strike actions. Monitor local news for information on possible curfews and road conditions. Heed the advice of local authorities. Do not attempt to pass through police checkpoints without authorities' permission. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
On Oct. 9, Mozambican citizens voted to elect a new president, parliament, and regional governmental officials. Election periods can be disruptive in Mozambique. Although the system is de jure, democratic, and multipartisan, accusations of fraud are common. The campaign and election proceeded relatively peacefully despite reports of ballot box issues and polling stations not opening. International observers noted irregularities. On Oct. 24, the CNE confirmed Daniel Chapo, Frelimo’s new leader, as President with 70 percent of the vote; Frelimo secured 195 of 250 parliamentary seats and won all provincial governorships. Over half of registered voters abstained.
Opposition parties called the process fraudulent before the election results were announced, and Mondlane claimed an early victory. The Podemos party, which backs Mondlane, called for a nationwide strike on Oct. 21 following the killings of two of its high-ranking members, which Podemos alleges were politically motivated. A related gathering in Maputo was dispersed by police with tear gas and live ammunition. Mondlane then called for a two-day nationwide shutdown Oct. 24-25 in anticipation of the release of election results.
