Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm Trami tracking northwestward in the Philippine Sea early Oct. 23 /update 2

Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines) is tracking northwestward over the Philippine Sea early Oct. 23. As of 05:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 444 km (276 miles) east of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain its strength as it tracks northwestward off the east coast of the Philippines early Oct. 23 before making landfall over Cagayan Valley Region late Oct. 23. After making landfall, the system is expected to maintain its strength as it tracks westward across Luzon Island early Oct. 24, before exiting into the South China Sea during the late morning or early afternoon Oct. 24. The storm is expected to strengthen but remain a tropical storm as it tracks generally westward across the South China Sea towards central Vietnam Oct. 25 through early Oct. 28. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 23, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to eastern coastal waters. A Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 2 (the second lowest level on a five-tier scale) is in place for: Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, northern Zambales, northern Bulacan, northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, northern and eastern Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, eastern Albay, eastern Sorsogon, northeastern Northern Samar, and northern Eastern Samar provinces and a TCWS 1 across the rest of Luzon and most of the rest of the Visayas, as well as Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte Province including Siargao-Bucas Grande Group in Mandanao.

A separate weather advisory has also been issued for heavy rainfall associated with the storm system across central, eastern, and northern regions. Rainfall totals of over 20 cm (8 inches) are expected in Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Aurora, Quezon, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur provinces Oct. 23 and Pangasinan, Zambales, and La Union provinces Oct. 24. Rainfall totals of 5-20 cm (2-8 inches) are expected across other parts of the central, eastern, and northern Philippines Oct. 23-25. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.

Albay Province and Magpet town in Cotabato Province have declared states of calamity. One person remains missing after a boat broke down in the waters off the Municipality of Merida Oct. 21. As of early Oct. 23, more than 340 people in Eastern Visayas Regions have been pre-emptively evacuated and more than 1,180 people have been displaced. Authorities in Albay Province have ordered the evacuation from all areas prone to flooding, landslides, and lahars around Mayon Volcano. Heavy rainfall associated with the storm system has caused several roads in the area to be made impassable due to floodwaters and debris.

Calbayog Airport (CYP) in Calbayog City, Samar Province and Catarman National Airport (CRM) in Northern Samar Province are closed due to the severe weather. Several domestic flights connecting Manila with Basco, Clark, Naga, Masbate, Cauayan, Tuguegarao, and Virac Oct. 23 and Cauayan, Laoag, and Tuguegarao Oct. 24 have been canceled. Ferry services have been suspended at many ports across the eastern and northern Philippines, and more than 4,600 people are stranded at ports across the country as of early Oct. 23. Officials have closed schools across many parts of the eastern and northern Philippines due to adverse weather associated with the approach of the storm and work has been suspended in government offices in several provinces, including Albay, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Power outages have affected parts of Eastern Visayas, Samar, Biliran, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, and Leyte provinces.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.