Philippine Sea: Typhoon Kong-rey tracking northwestward east of the Phillippines as of early Oct. 30 /update 4

Typhoon Kong-rey (known in the Philippines as Leon) is tracking northwestward across the Philippine Sea, east of the Philippines, early Oct. 30. As of 05:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 813 km (505 miles) south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will strengthen briefly into a super typhoon the afternoon of Oct. 30 before weakening back into a typhoon as it tracks northwestward and makes landfall over far northeastern Taitung County, Taiwan, the afternoon of Oct. 31. The storm is likely to weaken as it turns to track northwestward across Taiwan and exits into the Taiwan Strait late Oct. 31. Kong-rey is likely to weaken into a tropical storm as it turns to track north-northeastward just off the coast of Fujian then Zhejiang provinces in China and enters the East China Sea late Nov. 1 before turning to track northeastward towards Kyushu, Japan through Nov. 2. The system is forecast to make another landfall over Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan late Nov. 2 before tracking northeastward across Miyazaki Prefecture and exiting back into the Phillippine Sea early Nov. 3. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 30, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to coastal waters. The following warnings are in place:

• Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 3 (the middle level on a five-tier scale): Batanes and eastern Babuyan Islands

• TCWS 2: The rest of Babuyan Islands, Cagayan, northern and eastern Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, northern and eastern Abra, eastern Mountain Province, and Ilocos Norte

• TCWS 1: The rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the rest of Abra, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, northeastern Tarlac, northern Bulacan, northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, northern Camarines Sur, and northern and eastern Catanduanes

The Taiwan Central Weather Administration has issued a sea and land typhoon warning for Pingtung and Taitung counties and strong wind advisories across Taiwan's southern and northwestern coasts.

Much of northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami. The storm system made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24 before tracking westward across northern Luzon. Heavy rainfall and strong winds associated with Trami have caused damage and widespread flooding, affecting almost seven million people. The death toll has risen to 139, including at least 55 fatalities in Batangas Province. At least 21 other people remain missing. The casualty count is likely to be further adjusted in the coming days. More than 760,000 people remain evacuated. Further severe weather is likely to exacerbate the situation and hamper recovery efforts.

The national government has directed local government units (LGUs) to carry out forced and mandatory evacuations of residents in areas identified as high risk in Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Bicol, and Cordillera Administrative regions; authorities advised communities exposed to flooding and landslides to remain vigilant and evacuate to designated shelters. More than 2,000 residents were evacuated from isolated barangays in Agoncillo Municipality, Batangas Province. Officials suspended sea travel in Eastern Samar and Northern Samar provinces. Authorities have also prohibited all types of water activities and sailing in Albay Province. Authorities have suspended classes in parts of Luzon and the Central Visayas Region.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.