Philippine Sea: Typhoon Kong-rey tracking northwestward to the southeast of Taiwan as of Oct. 30 /update 5

Typhoon Kong-rey (known in the Philippines as Leon) is tracking northwestward across the Philippine Sea to the northeast of the Philippines and southeast of Taiwan Oct. 30. As of 17:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 650 km (404 miles) south-southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will weaken slightly as it tracks northwestward Oct. 30-early Oct. 31 before making landfall over northeastern Taitung County, Taiwan, during the afternoon of Oct. 31. The storm is likely to weaken rapidly after landfall but remain a typhoon as it tracks north-northwestward across Taiwan late Oct. 31 before entering the Taiwan Strait. Kong-rey is likely to weaken into a tropical storm as it turns to tracks north-northeastward off the coast of Fujian then Zhejiang provinces in China Nov. 1, before tracking northeastward across the East China Sea late Nov. 1-Nov. 2. The system is forecast to make another landfall over Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan, late Nov. 2 before tracking east-northeastward across southern Kyushu Island and exiting back into the Phillippine Sea early Nov. 3. The storm is expected to transition into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks east-northeastward off the southern coast of Honshu Island Nov. 3. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Oct. 30, the Taiwan Central Weather Administration has issued a sea and land typhoon warning across much of Taiwan. Red extremely heavy rainfall advisories (the second highest level on a four-tier scale) have been issued across mountainous areas of Hualien and Yilan counties and orange and yellow advisories are in place across much of the rest of eastern, northern, and southeastern Taiwan. Strong wind advisories are in place across all coastal and some inland areas of Taiwan.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northern and central regions and rough seas to coastal waters, as well as possible storm surge in coastal areas. The following wind warnings are in place:

• Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 4 (the second highest level on a five-tier scale): Batanes

• TCWS 3: The eastern Babuyan Islands and northeastern mainland Cagayan.

• TCWS 2: The rest of Babuyan Islands and mainland Cagayan, northern Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, northern and eastern Abra, eastern Mountain Province, and Ilocos Norte

• TCWS 1: The rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the rest of Abra, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, and northeastern Tarlac

PAGASA has issued a separate weather advisory for heavy rainfall associated with the passing of Kong-rey. Rainfall totals of over 20 cm (8 inches) are expected across Batanes Oct. 30-Nov.1 and Cagayan including the Babuyan Islands Oct. 30-31. Rainfall totals of 5-20 cm (2-8 inches) are forecast across other parts of the central and northern Philippines Oct. 30-Nov.2.

Much of northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami. The storm system made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24 before tracking westward across northern Luzon. Heavy rainfall and strong winds associated with Trami have caused damage and widespread flooding, affecting almost seven million people. The death toll has risen to 139, including at least 55 fatalities in Batangas Province. At least 21 other people remain missing. The casualty count is likely to be further adjusted in the coming days. More than 760,000 people remain evacuated. Further severe weather is likely to exacerbate the situation and hamper recovery efforts.

The national government has directed local government units (LGUs) to carry out forced and mandatory evacuations of residents in areas identified as high risk in Ilocos, Cagayan Valley, Bicol, and Cordillera Administrative regions; authorities advised communities exposed to flooding and landslides to remain vigilant and evacuate to designated shelters. More than 2,000 residents were evacuated from isolated barangays in Agoncillo Municipality, Batangas Province. Officials suspended sea travel in Eastern Samar and Northern Samar provinces. Authorities have also prohibited all types of water activities and sailing in Albay Province. Authorities have suspended classes in parts of Luzon and the Central Visayas Region.

In Taiwan, schools and offices have been closed across Taitung and parts of Yilan County from late Oct. 30. Ferry services have been suspended in southeastern areas Oct. 29-30 and further service cancellations are likely across other parts of Taiwan over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.