Philippine Sea: Tropical Depression Toraji forms in the Phillippine Sea and tracking westward toward the Philippines as of Nov. 9

Tropical Depression Toraji (known in the Philippines as Nika) has formed in the Philippine Sea and is tracking westward toward the Philippines Nov. 9. As of 14:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 1,141 km (709 miles) east of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will strengthen into a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward and then northwestward over the Philippine Sea through early Nov. 11, before making landfall as a strong tropical storm over northeastern Aurora Province in eastern Luzon during the afternoon Nov. 11. Toraji is expected to weaken but remain a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward across Luzon late Nov, 11 and exits into the South China Sea early Nov. 12. The system is forecast to continue to weaken as it tracks northwestward across the South China Sea toward far southern China Nov. 12-14. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Nov. 9, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to eastern, northern, and north-central regions and rough seas to coastal waters. A Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 1 (the lowest level on a five-tier scale) is in place for southeastern Isabela, northern Aurora, southeastern mainland Quezon, the Pollilo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and northeastern Albay.

A separate weather advisory warning for heavy rainfall and landslides due to the storm is also in place. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Cagayan, Apayao, and Isabela provinces and 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and Aurora provinces Nov. 11-12. Lesser totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes provinces Nov. 10-11 and Ifugao and Quirino provinces Nov. 11-12.

Much of the northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines), which made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24, Typhoon Kong-rey (named Leon in the Philippines), which made a close approach to northeastern Luzon Oct. 30-31, and most recently Typhoon Yinxing (named Marce in the Philippines). which passed over the north coast of Luzon Nov. 7. The succession of tropical systems has caused widespread flooding, damage, and associated disruptions across parts of the region. Further severe weather associated with Toraji (Nika) is likely to lead to further disruptions and hamper recovery efforts.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.