13 Nov 2024 | 11:45 PM UTC
Philippine Sea: Tropical Storm Man-yi tracking west-northwestward off Yap State in the Federated States of Micronesia as of early Nov. 14 /update 5
TS Man-yi tracking west-northwestward in Philippine Sea early Nov. 14. Close approach to Yap State, Federated States of Micronesia ongoing.
Tropical Storm Man-yi is tracking west-northwestward in the Philippine Sea early Nov. 14. As of 05:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was 311 km (193 miles) southeast of Aparri, Philippines.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will pass north of Yap State in the Federated States of Micronesia through the afternoon of Nov. 14 before strengthening into a typhoon as it gradually turns to track northwestward through early Nov. 16. Man-yi is forecast to strengthen further and make landfall over Catanduanes Province in the Philippines late Nov. 16 before making landfalls over far northern Polillo Island in Quezon Province and then southern Aurora Province early Nov. 17. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken but remain a typhoon as it tracks northwestward across the Central Luzon and southern Ilocos regions before exiting into the South China Sea early Nov. 19 and subsequently moving northwestward away from the Philippines through early Nov. 19. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather advisory for heavy rainfall due to the storms Usagi and Man-yi. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Isabela and Cagayan provinces Nov. 14 and Batanes Province Nov. 15. Totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are forecast over Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Apayao and Kalinga Nov. 14, Cagayan Nov. 15, and Northern Samar Nov. 16. Lesser totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over other parts of the eastern and northern Philippines Nov. 14-16, with some of the later rainfall associated with Man-yi. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
