Philippine Sea: Typhoon Toraji tracking westward toward the Philippines as of Nov. 10 /update 1

Typhoon Toraji (known in the Philippines as Nika) is tracking westward in the Phillippine Sea toward Luzon in the Philippines Nov. 10. As of 14:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 456 km (283 miles) east of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the weather system will strengthen further as it tracks northwestward toward Luzon late Nov. 10-early Nov. 11, before making landfall over northeastern Aurora Province during the morning Nov. 11. Toraji is expected to weaken but remain a typhoon as it tracks northwestward across Luzon during the morning and early afternoon of Nov. 11 before exiting into the South China Sea. The system is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward across the South China Sea toward far southern China Nov. 12-14, before weakening into a tropical depression and dissipating as it turns to track west-southwestward to the east of Hainan Island, China, Nov. 14-15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Nov. 10, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a tropical cyclone bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to eastern, northern, and north-central regions and rough seas to coastal waters. A Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 2 (the second lowest level on a five-tier scale) is in place for northern and central Aurora, Isabela, Quirino, southern Cagayan, Nueva Vizcaya, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, eastern Benguet, northern Nueva Ecija, and northeastern Pangasinan. A TCWS 1 is in place for the rest of Cagayan including the Babuyan Islands, Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, the rest of Pangasinan, La Union, the rest of Benguet, the rest of Aurora, Tarlac, northern and central Zambales, the rest of Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, eastern Laguna, eastern Quezon including the Pollilo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and Albay.

A separate weather advisory for heavy rainfall due to the storm is also in place. Rainfall of more than 20 cm (8 inches) is forecast over Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, and Aurora provinces Nov. 11-12 and 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over Aurora and Isabela provinces Nov. 10-11 and Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Quirino, and Nueva Vizcaya provinces Nov. 11-12. Lesser totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over other parts of the eastern and northern Philippines Nov. 10-13. There is also a moderate-to-high risk storm surge may occur in the next 48 hours in low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including the Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon including the Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Estimated storm surge heights of 2.1-3 meters (7-10 feet) are forecast in parts of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte provinces and 1-2 meters (3-7 feet) in other affected areas.

Authorities in Albay Province have evacuated more than 1,200 people in Libon town Nov. 10 due to anticipated heavy rainfall in the area. Authorities have also also evacuated some residents in parts of Camarines Sur Province. The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) suspended sea travel off Quezon Province Nov. 9 due to rough seas, and around 140 passengers are stranded across ports in Bicol Region as of Nov. 10 due to sea travel being suspended. Classes have been suspended at schools in dozens of locations across parts of Albay, Benguet, Camarines Sur, Isabela, Nueva Ecija, and Quezon provinces.

Much of the northern and central Philippines is still recovering from the passage of Tropical Storm Trami (named Kristine in the Philippines), which made landfall in Divilacan Town, Isabela Province, at around 00:30 Oct. 24, Typhoon Kong-rey (named Leon in the Philippines), which made a close approach to northeastern Luzon Oct. 30-31, and most recently Typhoon Yinxing (named Marce in the Philippines). which passed over the north coast of Luzon Nov. 7. The succession of tropical systems has caused widespread flooding, damage, and associated disruptions across parts of the region. Further severe weather associated with Toraji (Nika) is likely to lead to further disruptions and hamper recovery efforts.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.