Mozambique Channel: Intense Tropical Cyclone Chido tracking westward toward Mozambique early Dec. 15 /update 8

Intense Tropical Cyclone Chido is tracking westward across the Mozambique Channel and is approaching Mozambique early Dec. 15. As of 00:01 EAT, the system was around 274 km (170 miles) northeast of Nacala, Mozambique.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will make landfall over far southeastern Cabo Delagado Province, close to the border with Nampula Province in Mozambique, during the morning of Dec. 15. After landfall, Chido is forecast to weaken rapidly into a moderate tropical storm as it tracks westward inland over northern Mozambique Dec. 15 before weakening further into a zone of disturbed weather and dissipating over southern Malawai early Dec. 16. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming hours and days.

Meteo France Mayotte is maintaining a red cyclone warning (the second-highest level on a four-tier scale) across Mayotte. The severe weather is likely to ease over the coming hours. The Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued a public advisory warning of heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds over parts of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa provinces over the coming days associated with Chido. Rainfall totals of more than 25 cm (10 inches) and winds gusting up to 200 kph (124 mph) are expected across parts of the affected region. Red cyclone warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) are in place across Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa provinces.

Authorities in Mayotte have confirmed two deaths on Petite-Terre; the death toll is likely to rise as recovery and search and rescue efforts progress. Widespread damage to buildings, fallen trees, and power outages have been reported in Mayotte as of early Dec. 15. Reports indicate significant damage to Dzaoudzi-Pamandzi International Airport (DZA) and the hospital. Dzaoudzi–Pamandzi International Airport (DZA) is closed through at least the morning Dec. 16 due to the passing of the storm. Some shanty towns have been destroyed. Full damage assessments are unlikely to be carried out until the adverse weather-associated storm system has passed, and it may take some time for the full extent of Chido's impact to be confirmed. Residents in Mayotte have been advised not to venture out until the storm has passed and thousands of residents are being housed in dozens of emergency shelters established across Mayotte. Shops, bars, and restaurants have been closed across Mayotte since 22:00 early Dec. 15. Thousands of homes are without power, while mobile service has been disrupted.

11 people in Comoros are missing after they went out to sea Dec. 12. Comoros authorities ordered all ships to remain anchored in harbors and have closed Prince Said Ibrahim International Airport (HAH). Schools and government offices were closed Dec. 13.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.