Mozambique: Intense Tropical Cyclone Chido tracking westward inland over southeastern Cabo Delgado Province as of Dec. 15 /update 9

Intense Tropical Cyclone Chido is tracking westward inland over southeastern Cabo Delgado Province in northeastern Mozambique Dec. 15, having made landfall over the region in the last few hours. As of 11:00 CAT, the system was around 154 km (96 miles) north-northwest of Nacala, Mozambique.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken rapidly into a moderate tropical storm as it tracks west-southwestward over southern Cabo Delgado Province and into southern Niassa Province Dec. 15. The system is expected to weaken further into a tropical depression as it moves southwestward over southern Malawi during the morning Dec. 16, before weakening into a zone of disturbed weather and dissipating over Tete Province in northwestern Mozambique late Dec. 16. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming hours and days.

The Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued a public advisory warning of heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds over parts of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa provinces through at least Dec. 17 associated with Chido. Rainfall totals of more than 25 cm (10 inches) and winds gusting up to 125 kph (78 mph) are expected across parts of the affected region. Red cyclone warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) are in place across Cabo Delgado, Nampula, Niassa, and Tete provinces and an orange cyclone warning is in place for Zambezia Province. Malawi's Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services has issued a severe tropical storm warning (The second-highest level on a four-tier scale) across parts of southern Malawi between Lilongwe and Blantyre. Significant rainfall and strong winds are forecast in the region Dec. 15-16.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.