06 Dec 2024 | 07:04 PM UTC
Somalia: Clashes, increased security likely in Jubbaland through at least late December amid tensions between federal and regional authorities
Clashes between regional forces, Somali government troops likely in Jubbaland through late December amid tension. Tight security likely.
Clashes and heightened security are likely in Jubbaland through at least late December due to ongoing tensions between federal and regional authorities. Armed confrontations broke out between Somali government forces and Jubaland's Darwish forces in Raskamboni, near Somalia's southern border with Kenya, overnight on Dec. 4-5. Casualty figures remain unclear, and reports suggest that telecommunications services have been disrupted in the area.
Additionally, the federal government suspended direct flights between Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (NBO), Kenya, and Kismayo Airport (KMU) as of Dec. 6, citing ongoing tensions; however, the measure reportedly does not impact domestic flights from Mogadishu to Kismayo.
Security personnel will almost certainly remain deployed in the area over the coming days. Further confrontations between regional forces and the security forces are likely. Officials could impose restrictive movement measures, including curfews and road closures. Additional clashes and resulting casualties could spark unrest. Associated flight disruptions are also to be expected over the coming weeks and months.
Avoid the impacted location as a precaution. If further fighting breaks out nearby, immediately take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Individuals flying from Kenya to Kisimayo are advised to monitor developments to the situation, prepare for flight disruptions, and seek alternative travel arrangements. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
The relationship between Jubbaland and the Federal Government of Somalia has deteriorated in recent weeks, leading to heightened tensions and concerns about regional stability. This conflict has its roots in longstanding disagreements over electoral processes and regional autonomy. Recently, tension has escalated further after Jubbaland authorities decided to hold their own elections, resulting in the re-election of Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe as regional president. The federal government rejected these results, citing a lack of federal oversight, prompting Jubbaland to sever ties with the central authority and accuse it of constitutional violations.
Furthermore, the Federal Government sought the arrest of President Madobe on charges of treason and collusion with foreign entities, while Jubbaland's judiciary responded by issuing a warrant for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, accusing him of treason and inciting civil war.
