Russia, Ukraine: Conflict Negotiations Likely to Start in Complex Strategic Environment

Russia and Ukraine will likely agree to a ceasefire only if it sets the direction towards a peace settlement that meets their strategic aims. Putin’s strategic objectives likely include reducing international sanctions as quickly as possible, formal Ukrainian neutrality that guarantees Kyiv will be denied a path to NATO and EU membership, and no formal security guarantees between Kyiv and the West. He will almost certainly insist that Ukraine cede Crimea to Russia, with an assurance of its water supply from the Ukrainian mainland. Russia will likely demand control of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, which Moscow annexed in 2023 despite not controlling them in their entirety. These regions are significant because they link Crimea to the Russian heartland via a land corridor.  

Ukraine may initially demand a return to its 1991 borders; however, these aspirations are unrealistic given Russian territorial control since 2014. Kyiv may aim for the reduced objective of pre-February 2022 lines of control. Therefore, territorial discussions during peace negotiations will likely focus on the parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk occupied since 2022. Officials in Kyiv may push for elections to be held in these disputed territories, potentially administered by an independent international body. Most importantly, Zelensky will likely bid for robust security guarantees to assure Ukraine’s independence in the event of further Russian aggression, including around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station.  

The US administration is almost certainly focused on achieving a ceasefire as soon as possible to deliver on Trump’s campaign promises and reduce its financial support for Ukraine, as we have seen this week. Even if excluded from the US-led negotiations, European nations aim to play a key role. Authorities in France, Germany, Poland, and the UK will likely maintain a close dialogue with Zelensky to demonstrate their ongoing support, offer security guarantees, and hold open future EU and NATO membership. 

Given that Russia’s and Ukraine’s strategic outcomes are largely incompatible, a formal peace accord is unlikely to be reached quickly, if at all. It is possible that the talks do not achieve the pre-conditions for a ceasefire for either side. Multiple scenarios are, therefore, possible in the coming months.  

Russia may see a strategic benefit in continuing the conflict to maximize territorial gains if it believes that the US will reduce military aid to Ukraine. Russian forces may even make significant breakthroughs if the US withdraws, for example, intelligence support or decisive weapons. Authorities in Moscow will likely balance possible benefits with the ongoing economic impact of sanctions, the degradation of its oil infrastructure, and its losses in front-line casualties. Russian forces may also continue to fight to expel the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk, even if there is a suspension of hostilities in Ukraine. Putin may refuse any ceasefire that has European forces stationed in Ukraine as a pre-condition. 

It is equally possible that authorities in Kyiv will decide to continue military operations. Ukrainian officials may consider that their national survival remains at stake and that, in the absence of US security guarantees, a ceasefire would allow Russia to re-arm and then break the armistice at a time of its choosing. At the same time, Western governments will likely hold Ukraine to higher international standards.