For the past decade, southern Africa has had widespread electricity shortages across all but two countries. South Africa, the region’s largest economy, has seen power cuts of up to 10 hours in February 2023. The situation is so dire that they have even coined the term “load shedding” in a bid to minimize the reality of the risk – long periods without electricity. But it is not just about South Africa: the entire region is seemingly affected.
Load shedding occurs when the demand for power exceeds the supply. To maintain continuous production and voltage, authorities deliberately switch off certain parts of the grid on a rolling and scheduled basis and distribute electrical power equally. Power cuts, even for a short period of time, significantly increase operating risks. These culminate in an increased likelihood of theft, violence, road accidents, and transport and communication disruptions, which in turn require businesses and residents to adapt – at higher operating costs.
Powerless Populations
Of the 11 countries in southern Africa, only two – Angola and Botswana – are not at immediate risk of power cuts. Load shedding can still affect parts of their populations, however: Although Angola’s utility provider has not scheduled any power interruptions, only 10 percent of rural areas have continuous electricity; and while Botswana can boast high levels of electrification at 75 percent, that is still below South Africa’s 84 percent.
The most severely impacted country is Zimbabwe. Although only half of its population is connected to the grid, it can only sustain the demand for power for up to six hours a day. The grid may require 24-hour rolling power cuts from 2023 onwards, only providing electricity every second day. Malawi and, up until February, Zambia witnessed daily power cuts of more than 12 hours, as their dams’ water levels were too low to run power stations at full capacity.
South Africa boasts the largest grid, the highest levels of electrification, and the highest per capita consumption. Yet, its energy situation is worsening, with the country now having had continuous rolling load shedding since November 2022, decreasing reliability, and being the only country with falling levels of electrification. 2023 will likely be the worst year on record, as it is likely that the country will not spend a single day without some form of load shedding.
Eswatini has implemented sporadic bouts of load shedding since 2015, currently operating with four-hour daily cuts but continuous coverage in the evenings. While they do not currently implement load shedding, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Namibia have also experienced load shedding as recently as 2022.
A South African Connection
Although it is not the sole reason for the regional trend, the fact that these countries are interdependent when it comes to their power supply has increased the challenge. There is a complex market for importing and exporting electricity, at the center of which is South Africa.
South Africa is, to some extent, the region’s stumbling block. Because it was once a state-of-the-art system, Eskom, South Africa’s state-run electricity producer and provider, could deliver continuous and excess output to its industrialized economy. And because it generates nearly three times more power than any other southern African country, the South African grid exported a significant amount of electrical power to its neighbors through bilateral agreements.
The existence of the Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) compounds this issue. In addition to existing mutual agreements, the SAPP allows for SADC member states – which include the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Tanzania, but excludes Madagascar – to exchange their surplus electrical power. With the notable exception of Angola, which has yet to be connected to the SAPP, all members export to and/or import from the pool – even Zimbabwe occasionally contributes its surplus production.
The Glitches in the System
The regionalizing of energy is not the sole explanation for southern Africa’s issue; each country has its own set of vulnerabilities. Amid a growing population, modernizing economies, growing need for technological development, and increasing vulnerability to climate change, the supply of electrical power has not kept up with the demand.
Firstly, there is a tendency to be highly dependent on a single energy source. All surveyed countries draw 50 percent or more of their electricity from a single power source – eight of them from hydropower plants which depend on water levels. And when operating in an arid and drought-prone region, the likelihood of water shortages is high enough for hydropower to be unreliable. Zambia and Zimbabwe only recently recovered from a three-month-long period where the water levels in Kariba Dam, which they share, were too low to use. This water shortage forced Zambian authorities to implement up to 12 hours of load shedding.
Secondly, there are severe infrastructural deficiencies. southern African grids are aging rapidly, and as electrification rates remain low, more is being asked of their outdated power plants. Increased usage is accelerating their deterioration, further increasing the risk of unplanned maintenance. Some countries, especially along the Indian Ocean coastline, are highly prone to extreme weather events such as cyclones and floods. These can inflict physical damage to power plants and electric cables as well as damage transport infrastructure, disrupting fuel supply chains.
Thirdly, alternative energy producers are lacking in most countries. Strict legal frameworks often limit or outright forbid independent power producers (IPPs) from operating alternative grids to that of the usually state-run utilities. The centralized system of production gives a single utility the responsibility to produce, transport, and sell electrical power. And since these political regimes are mostly one-party systems, this leaves these countries especially vulnerable to corruption.
Smaller Grids but More Power
Because of the diversity of woes, there is no size-fits-all solution. For example, possessing abundant natural mineral resources is no guarantee of stable power output. As Angola and Mozambique illustrate, being an oil-producing country does not assure a stable power source; neither does being a coal producer such as South Africa. Rather, solutions are being tailored to the symptoms.
The general idea pursued by almost all governments is that of self-sufficiency. Angola, Eswatini, and Namibia have explicitly included the need to be independent of their neighbors when it comes to their power supply. This is not to say that the SAPP has outlived its usefulness: it is likely that once countries have become self-sustaining, they will seek to keep the mechanism as a means of exporting electricity. This will likely only come once regionwide electrification levels have increased.
To counter the issue of a high dependency on a single power source, countries have sought not only to build new power plants, but also to opt for alternative fueling. Methane and biofuels are being considered in Lesotho and Madagascar, and gas power plants for Mozambique and South Africa. Most countries have banked on the development of renewable energies, especially solar power, with Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, and Namibia having some of the highest potentials for solar power worldwide.
In an attempt to simultaneously increase electrification levels, smaller-scale grids are also a cost-effective measure. This would not require smaller, rural communities to be connected to a centralized grid but to rely on tailored power plants. While solar power remains an attractive power source, nuclear plants and wind turbines are also envisioned as solutions.
Is Disconnection a Solution?
All countries – bar Zimbabwe as of 2023 – have – or are in the process of so doing – liberalized their domestic markets. This means either creating competitive environments for multiple state-run companies, such as in Lesotho or Zambia, separating the production, transport, and distribution of electricity, such as in South Africa, or loosening laws around IPPs. Increasingly, the latter solution seems the most appealing, as it would potentially provide for more flexible and diverse sources of power and a faster solution to the current crisis.
This would not only increase the likelihood of an improved business environment but could also create new investment opportunities in an emerging market. There is a growing need for power that has yet to be filled by public utilities. In search of self-reliance, total independence from the nationwide grid is a viable solution for investment in southern Africa. Paradoxically, a stable electrical connection could be found by disconnecting from nationwide grids.
For the time being, the outlook for southern Africa remains uncertain, at least through 2023. Some countries are unlikely to see significant improvements in the coming months: elections in Madagascar, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique, and deteriorating political climates in Eswatini and South Africa, will likely postpone significant policy changes or even worsen the situation. On the other hand, improving conditions in Zambia and Lesotho and stabilizing regimes in Angola and Malawi could provide governments with the necessary political capital to move toward positive change.
A high level of caution and contingency planning is still required when operating in countries affected by load shedding. The use of diesel-powered generators and uninterrupted power supply (UPS) systems or off-grid power sources, such as solar photovoltaic, are necessary to maintain continuous power for both communication and security purposes.
This is a developing situation: monthly or bi-weekly updates are often necessary, especially in countries whose situation is deteriorating. For businesses and international travelers alike, this makes the planning of operations in affected countries a complex and onerous task. Because of its physical presence in the region and network of researchers, Crisis24’s intelligence services provide the necessary analysis to act on incoming risks by providing detailed assessments of the business climate in southern Africa.
Crisis24 provides in-depth intelligence, planning, and training, as well as swift and actionable responses to keep your organization ahead of emerging risks. Contact us to learn more.
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