ASIA SUMMARY
November 7, 2023
North Korea / South Korea SITUATION REPORT
FACTS
- On Monday, Nov. 6, North Korean state media reported that the regime (DPRK) now had "the most powerful nuclear force in the world".
- On Monday, Nov. 6, according to the South Korean Unification Minister, the DPRK appears to have received Russian technical assistance for the forthcoming launch of its first military spy satellite.
- On Sunday, Nov. 5, the North Korean regime officially designated November 18 "Missile Industry Day" to celebrate the successful launch of a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on 18.11.2022.
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On Friday, Nov. 3, according to the South Korean Defense Minister, the North may have delayed its 3rd attempt to launch a spy satellite to take advantage of Russian expertise in this field. According to the minister, this 3rd attempt could take place by the end of November. The day before, the official called for increased military preparedness to counter any North Korean provocation "aimed at diverting national attention from the country's food crisis".
- On Friday, Nov. 3, the DPRK slammed the USA for its Nov. 1 launch of a Minuteman III intercontinental missile (ICBM), promising to respond to "reckless" provocations with "swift, overwhelming and decisive counteraction".
ANALYSIS
NORTH KOREA / USA
- As a reminder, direct talks between Washington and Pyongyang have been at a standstill since 2019, in the wake of a 2nd meeting between Kim Jong-un (KJU) and D. Trump (then US President) in Hanoi, Vietnam, which ended in failure. The COVID pandemic that followed, the DPRK's total withdrawal and its frenzy of ballistic tests and verbal provocations of all kinds directed at Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, further added to the inertia.
- In the absence of dialogue with the USA, the DPRK has enshrined in its Constitution the reinforcement of its nuclear capabilities, and is working to develop tactical nuclear weapons and orbit a military spy satellite, among other projects.
SOUTH KOREA / USA
- At the end of last week, Pyongyang declared that military cooperation between South Korea, the USA and Japan was entering a "very dangerous phase" that could bring the Korean peninsula "to the brink of nuclear war" (as a reminder, at the beginning of October, the 3 allies organized a trilateral maritime interdiction exercise in the waters south of the Korean peninsula for the 1st time since 2016).
- On Nov. 1, the United States fired an unarmed ICBM from the Vandenberg space base in California, in the presence of a South Korean delegation led by the Vice-Minister of Defense; a first since 2016.
OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS
- After two failed attempts earlier this year (in May and August), the North Korean dictatorship is said to be technically ready to order a 3rd attempt to put its 1st military observation satellite into orbit. According to the South Korean Ministry of Defense, this new test could be scheduled concomitantly with the 1st celebration of "missile industry day" on Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023.
- For the record, the South Korean army will launch its 1st military reconnaissance satellite into orbit on Nov. 30 from the Vandenberg space base in California (using an American SpaceX launcher).
- For some, the North's "release" on Sept. 27 of US soldier T. King (who had entered the DPRK in July) augured a possible willingness on Pyongyang's part to resume talks with the USA; this has not been the case until now.
- Barring a reversal of fortunes (always possible without notice with Pyongyang), tension between the DPRK and the Washington-Seoul axis is likely to persist in the short term, in the wake of the NK dictator's long stay in Russia and its probable military declination (cf. North Korean munitions to Russian troops in Ukraine in exchange for food aid and sensitive technology transfers); barring a surprise (which would be welcome, however), the North-South dialogue as well as between Pyongyang and Washington, at a literal standstill since 2019, is unlikely to emerge from its torpor in the short term.
- In the short term, we cannot be surprised by yet another defiance by the DPRK, whether ballistic, conventional (cf. maritime incident near the disputed NLL), or other (cf. a 7th nuclear test, the 1st since 2017).
- For people and companies present in East Asia (SOUTH KOREA, JAPAN, TAIWAN), it is suggested to follow over the next few days -without being overly alarmed- the events, rhetorical threats and other show-offs of the North.
- As a reminder, travel to the DPRK is formally discouraged by all Western governments.
Author(s)
