ASIA SUMMARY
October 16, 2023
Afghanistan, Australia, China, North Korea, South Korea, India, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Taïwan
WEEK-END
- MALAYSIA (public order). On Friday, Oct. 13, several thousand people gathered at the national mosque in Kuala Lumpur and other mosques around the country to express their solidarity with the Palestinian people.
- NORTH KOREA((defense). On Friday, Oct. 13, Pyongyang criticized the arrival of the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan in Busan (South Korea) for a 5-day stopover, calling it a provocation likely to lead to "irrevocable and catastrophic circumstances".
- PHILIPPINES (defense). On Sunday, Oct. 15, Manila called on Beijing to cease its "dangerous actions" in the South China Sea, after a Chinese vessel attempted to cut off a Philippine navy vessel on a resupply mission near Thitu Island
- AFGHANISTAN (natural hazard). On Sunday, Oct. 15, an earthquake (magnitude 6.3) shook the Herat region (1 dead; dozens injured), where 1,000 people had already died last week in previous powerful earthquakes.
- AUSTRALIA (politics). On Sunday, Oct. 15, in a referendum, the Australian people rejected a proposal to recognize the rights of indigenous peoples in the Constitution and to create an indigenous body.
- AUSTRALIA (public order). On Sunday, Oct. 15, thousands of people took part in pro-Palestinian rallies in Sydney, Adelaide, and Melbourne, despite suggestions from the authorities to avoid such activities.
- INDIA (public order). On Sunday, Oct. 15, in Shivaji Park in Mumbai, activists belonging to various Hindu nationalist organizations organized public rallies.
TO BE MONITORED (in the next few days)
- JAPAN (natural hazard). On Sunday, Oct. 15, an offshore earthquake of magnitude 5.2 occurred 200 km southeast of Katsuura. No casualties or major material damage have been reported to date.
- TAIWAN (defense). On Monday, Oct. 16, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense reported the presence of ten Chinese aircraft and 5 warships around the island between Sunday morning and Monday morning 06:00.
- PHILIPPINES (public order). On Monday, Oct. 16, drivers of jeepneys, UV Express and multicabs are on nationwide strike to protest against the corruption afflicting this economic sector.
- SOUTH KOREA (defense). On Tuesday, Oct. 17, the biennial Seoul International Aerospace and Defence Exhibition (ADEX) opens its doors to hundreds of exhibitors (from some 50 countries) and thousands of visitors.
- NEW- ZEALAND (bad weather). The meteorological authorities are warning the population and visitors of heavy rain, snow and strong winds in the southern and central regions until Tuesday, Oct 17.
- CHINA (international event). On Tuesday, Oct. 17 and Wednesday, Oct. 18, the authorities organize the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, which will celebrate the 10th anniversary of the launch of this initiative by President Xi Jinping.
- INDIA (transport; public order). In Chennai (Tamil Nadu), an ongoing strike by cab and VTC drivers is scheduled to last at least until Tuesday, Oct. 17. On Wednesday, Oct. 18, strikers will gather morningly at the Rajarathinam stadium.
OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS
- Natural hazards: individuals present in East Asia (JAPAN), Southeast Asia, South Asia (AFGHANISTAN) and Oceania (NEW-ZEALAND) will be attentive to local bad weather (cf. rain; floods; high winds), natural hazards (cf. earthquake, landslides) that may impact safety and travel, and will comply with the instructions of local authorities.
- Public order: as public gatherings may impact travel or even degenerate into clashes, people present in INDIA, CHINA, the PHILIPPINES, PAKISTAN, AFGHANISTAN, AUSTRALIA and MALAYSIA will stay away from these various types of events as a precaution.
- With the security threat (terrorism, civil war, kidnapping) remaining at its highest, and Western governments suggesting that their citizens refrain from traveling to these countries except for imperative reasons, travel to AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, BURMA, NORTH KOREA and PAPUA-NG remains inadvisable.
- In view of the tense relations between Beijing and Taipei, the tensions in the South China Sea (Beijing/Manila) and the regular defiance of North Korea, we cannot rule out the occurrence of events in the Asia-Pacific region over the next few days that could have consequences for regional stability and the smooth running/relevance of travel.
Author(s)
Dr. Olivier Guillard
Director, Intelligence
Olivier Guillard manages a team of intelligence analysts, completes field missions, and provides training to clients. Olivier joined the Crisis24 team in 2002. He is well regarded in the industry as...
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