ASIA SUMMARY
October 2, 2023
Australia, Burma, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Maldives, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand
WEEKEND
- THAILAND (transport). On Friday Sept. 29, Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi airport opened a satellite terminal designed to absorb the sharp rise in Chinese tourist arrivals during the peak tourist season.
- INDIA (public order). On Friday Sept. 29, in Amritsar (Punjab State), several hundred Sikh activists demonstrated in front of the Golden Temple to demand that the killers of a Sikh separatist in Canada be brought to justice.
- INDONESIA (fires). Over the past few days, firefighters and authorities have been working to extinguish the forest fires ravaging South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan. Fire 'season' peaks in October.
- MALDIVES (public order; politics). On Sept. 30, Mr. Muizzu came out on top in the 2nd round of the presidential election and therefore appointed head of state for a 5-year term. His pro-China bias could undermine domestic stability.
- PAKISTAN (terrorism). On Sunday, Oct. 1, in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 2 unclaimed bomb attacks targeted 2 mosques, killing 60 people during celebrations of the Prophet Mohammed's birthday.
- BURMA ((public order). On Sunday, Oct. 1, the military junta (in power since the coup d'état of Feb. 2021) announced a 1st census phase from Oct. 1 to 15 in certain localities of the country, upsetting the opposition.
TO BE MONITORED (in the next few days)
- MALAYSIA (health). Southern peninsular Malaysia will be hit by haze from southern Sumatra over the next 3 days, with deteriorating air quality (particularly in Kuala Lumpur).
- PHILIPPINES (bad weather). The archipelago is 'preparing' for possible flash floods and landslides from Tropical Cyclone Koinu, which is expected to leave the Philippines on Thursday, Oct. 5.
- SOUTH KOREA (transport). On Monday, Oct. 2, the country's main expressways are bustling with traffic, on the 5th day of the traditional Chuseok vacation, as families head home from visiting their hometowns.
- AUSTRALIA (fire; evacuation). Out-of-control bushfires on Oct. 1 forced several hundred residents and tourists to evacuate the tourist region of Gippsland (Victoria State), 300 km east of Melbourne.
- INDIA (public order). Following renewed violence, the authorities imposed a curfew at the end of last week in the capital of Manipur (Imphal) and in various other sensitive regions of the State. The situation remains very tense locally.
- JAPAN (health; public order; diplomacy). Japan will begin the 2nd phase of discharging wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific on Thursday, Oct. 5, drawing criticism from Seoul and Beijing.
- INDONESIA (transport). On Monday, Oct. 2, President J. Widodo inaugurated the high-speed rail link between Jakarta and Bandung, a controversial project (supported by Beijing) that had been plagued by various technical problems.
- CHINA (transport). From Friday, Sept. 29 to Friday, Oct. 6, for the traditional Golden Week, an inflation of travel (air, rail, road) happens nationwide. Over 20 million passengers to board planes, with 14,000 domestic flights scheduled for each day of the holiday week.
- CHINA (sport event). The 19th Asian Games kicked off in Hangzhou on Saturday, Sept. 23. This sporting competition runs until Sunday, Oct. 8, with the participation of 12,000 athletes from 45 Asian countries.
OUTLOOK & RECOMMENDATIONS
- Natural hazards: individuals present in East Asia, Southeast Asia (MALAYSIA, PHILIPPINES, INDONESIA), South Asia and Oceania (AUSTRALIA) will be alert to local inclement weather (cf. heavy rains; floods; violent winds), earthquake or landslides that may impact safety and travel, and will comply with the instructions of local authorities.
- Public order: as public gatherings may impact travel or even degenerate into clashes, people present in INDIA, CHINA, SRI LANKA, PAKISTAN, SOUTH KOREA, MALDIVES, MALAYSIA or INDONESIA will stay away from these different kinds of events.
- With the security threat (terrorism, civil war, kidnapping) remaining at its highest, and Western governments suggesting to their citizens that they should not travel to these countries except for imperative reasons, travel to AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN, BANGLADESH, BURMA, NORTH KOREA and PAPUA-NG remains inadvisable.
- Finally, in view of the tense relations between Beijing and Taipei, the volatile situation in the South China Sea (Beijing/Manila) and the recurrent north Korean intimidations, we cannot rule out the occurrence of events in the Asia-Pacific region over the next few days that could have consequences for regional stability and the smooth running/relevance of travel.
Author(s)
Dr. Olivier Guillard
Director, Intelligence
Olivier Guillard manages a team of intelligence analysts, completes field missions, and provides training to clients. Olivier joined the Crisis24 team in 2002. He is well regarded in the industry as...
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