University students in Chengdu commemorating the victims of the Nov. 24 Urumqi fire, which has served as a flashpoint for nationwide protests over anti-epidemic curbs.
Current Situation
In late November, an unprecedented level of public disobedience to protest China’s “zero-COVID” policy broke out across the country, including in major cities like Beijing, Chengdu, Shanghai, and Wuhan. While some small-scale defiance over lockdowns had occurred earlier, for example in Guangzhou and at a factory in Zhengzhou, the trigger of the so-called “A4 Revolution” or “White Revolution” was a residential fire in Urumqi, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, on Nov. 24 that reportedly killed 10 people. Alongside urging an end to the strict anti-epidemic measures, slogans demanding greater political freedom – and in some instances calling for President Xi Jinping to step down – have also appeared during the protests.
Instead of a heavy-handed crackdown, the authorities have opted for follow-up actions and deterrence. For example, there were reports that authorities contacted those who participated in the protests and urged them not to participate in future events. Meanwhile, officials are also stepping up measures to prevent protesters from gathering, including increasing police patrols and creating barricades and roadblocks. These tactics have so far successfully scaled down the size of rallies compared to those that occurred between Nov. 26-28.
Tip of the Iceberg
China is the last major economy that continues to impose stringent COVID-19 restrictions. Although officials have avoided another large-scale disruptive Shanghai-style lockdown similar to that adopted earlier this year, they still impose small-scale, community-based lockdowns under the “zero-COVID” guidelines. On Nov. 24, related restrictions allegedly obstructed the rescue efforts at the Urumqi building fire. The incident then became the lightning rod for protests denouncing anti-epidemic measures.
However, the lockdowns’ adverse effects on economic activity and daily life are not the sole reason for public discontentment. Officials have already been grappling with the “lying flat” movement, which urges young workers disillusioned by social and professional stagnation to engage in non-cooperation with national development plans aimed at boosting domestic consumption and developing technological independence. Public anger over a housing market crash has also boiled over even as the government attempts to navigate a long-standing demographic challenge amid a pandemic-fueled economic downturn. There are also worries about the country’s political future following the 20th Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress where President Xi cemented his consolidation of power. The Financial Times reported that the event triggered the escape plans of some of the wealthiest in the country, due to fears of wealth tax hikes and threats to personal safety like the recent high-profile disappearances, including that of Alibaba founder Jack Ma.
Outlook
Beijing’s response to civilian protests beyond strict crackdowns typically involves blaming foreign actors for engineering “color revolutions.” However, despite small-scale demonstrations by overseas Chinese citizens, Western nations have so far refrained from making direct comments on the unrest. Multiple countries continue to concentrate on ongoing lockdown measures in their travel advisories for China. The US, for example, in its Nov. 28 advisory, encourages its citizens in China to have 14 days of daily supplies due to potential COVID-19 lockdowns. The lack of overt criticism by the international community has diluted China’s ability to use national pride to appeal for the spontaneous end of protests. Furthermore, like most other protest movements worldwide in recent years, the current wave of protests in China is leaderless and utilizes the internet as the main mobilization tool. While these qualities render protest momentum harder to eradicate, Chinese authorities’ unmatched control poses a stiff challenge. As surveillance measures are increasingly making it difficult for activists to plan and execute gatherings over their current demands, they may use other seemingly more legitimate reasons - such as the death of former premier Jiang Zemin who died Nov. 30 - to mobilize.
Despite the unseen level of defiance, the recent protest movement hardly challenges China’s political stability. Empowered by advanced security technology such as surveillance systems, the country is well-equipped to handle protests, riots, and other bottom-up civil movements. The recent events, on the contrary, could pave the way for further consolidation of power by Xi as it provides another justification for more robust state control under the guise of maintaining domestic and/or national security.
A complete abandonment of the “zero-COVID” policy is also unlikely in the medium term. People’s Daily, the mouthpiece of the Chinese government, published an article shortly after the eruption of the current unrest, saying the country is determined to achieve “zero COVID.” The policy is seen as an important way to build Xi’s political legacy, as he reiterated at the 20th CCP Congress that the nation will “put people and lives first and adhere to dynamic zero-COVID.” A shift away from the goal would thus imply weakness, if not his failure in achieving that goal. Nonetheless, slight relaxations in the country’s anti-epidemic measures can be expected. While some local governments have loosened some restrictions to appease the public over the past week, the central administration may attempt to enforce a uniform set of flexible and/or eased disease control measures to resolve regional policy differences. CCP officials may also redirect public anger towards local authorities by citing their mismanagement as the cause of contentious COVID-19 curbs and seek to end protests by punishing such officials. However, “zero-COVID" is here to stay – at least rhetorically.
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