Heightened political tensions and civil unrest will likely continue across Romania after the Constitutional Court invalidated the first round of the country’s presidential election. The exceptional measure has generated controversy both domestically and among the country’s large diaspora, intensifying distrust of the current political leadership. Russian actors will almost certainly seize on this opportunity, attempting to sow more discord following what, in all likelihood, was already a successful influence operation. Large-scale protest movements will continue through the completion of the rescheduled election.
At-a-Glance: Key Takeaways
- In Romania, political tensions and civil unrest are expected to persist across the country following the Constitutional Court's decision to invalidate the first round of the presidential election.
- The decision has sparked controversy at home and abroad, deepening mistrust in the political leadership.
- Protests are expected to continue until the rescheduled election concludes.
How Romania’s Election Sparked a Political Crisis
Romania’s November 24 election and the ensuing judicial response have plunged the country into an unprecedented political crisis. The first ballot saw Calin Georgescu, a relatively unknown far-right, pro-Russian independent politician and documented conspiracy theorist, take the leading position with about 23 percent of the vote. This outcome shocked domestic and international observers, who, up until election day, largely viewed Georgescu as a fringe outsider with little chance of victory.
Romanian intelligence authorities subsequently accused Georgescu of benefiting from a highly coordinated Russian information campaign designed to boost his candidacy. Most notably, around 25,000 Russian-backed social media accounts on the TikTok platform began posting pro-Georgescu content two weeks before the election. In light of this allegation, the Romanian Constitutional Court officially annulled the vote results on Dec. 6, requiring the country to rerun the election. As of mid-December, authorities have yet to reschedule the vote.
Escalating Tensions in Post-Election Romania
The post-election controversies have spurred nationwide protests. In the wake of the initial vote, pro- and anti-Georgescu groups conducted nightly demonstrations nationwide; following the annulment decision, anti-Georgescu protests largely ceased while pro-Georgescu and anti-establishment demonstrations have gained some momentum.
Allegations have emerged about groups planning violent actions in order to intensify the crisis. Notably, on Dec. 8, police in Bucharest arrested about 20 individuals who were allegedly heavily armed. Among the arrested suspects was Horatiu Potra, the former commander of a contract military force in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and current leader of Georgescu’s security team. Potra and his associates were reportedly in possession of numerous firearms, bladed weapons, a drone, and approximately USD 5,275 with which they reputedly planned to encourage individuals to attack anti-Georgescu demonstrations. However, judges subsequently decided to release Potra despite these allegations, declaring prosecutors’ basis for requesting a 30-day detention period as unfounded.
Georgescu’s shock success and the post-annulment controversy highlight key weaknesses within the Romanian political system which will likely continue to prompt societal divisions and attract Russian-led destabilization efforts in the rerun vote and beyond. Decades of rule under the center-left Social Democratic Party and center-right National Liberal Party have seen high corruption and slow economic development, leading to simmering anti-establishment sentiments among the electorate. As in other European countries, voters have channeled this angst into votes for far-right nationalist parties. The controversial Constitutional Court decision will almost certainly deepen this mistrust moving forward: observers consistently allege that the court is politicized, and the EU Court of Justice previously accused the body of facilitating official impunity. To this effect, it is notable that the Constitutional Court opted not to annul the results of the Dec. 1 parliamentary elections in which the Social Democratic Party won a plurality of seats.
Rising Nationalism and Political Fragmentation
All of this creates fertile ground for continued sociopolitical unrest and Russian-led destabilization efforts. Nationalist and other right-wing political leaders and activists will likely gain support as the electoral controversy prompts further skepticism of mainstream parties, with Russian-led social media activity increasingly channeling users toward such groups. The Social Democratic Party-led coalition will probably be an amalgamation of parties from across the political spectrum aimed at keeping the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), Romania’s primary far-right party, out of power. While likely to succeed in keeping the AUR out of the government, this coalition could prove too fractious to successfully pass meaningful legislation, deepening the popular political malaise.
The Challenge of Restoring Electoral Legitimacy
Societal tensions will remain high through the repeated presidential election. Pro-Georgescu and anti-establishment groups will continue to lead civil unrest in urban centers nationwide. The Potra incident highlights that fears of armed escalation may persist alongside heightened political tensions, further driving instability. Should authorities fail to quickly rerun the presidential election and restore some perception of electoral legitimacy, they will likely undermine the new government’s authority in the eyes of the electorate; this is particularly true if outgoing president Klaus Iohannis chooses the new prime minister.
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