KEY TAKEAWAYS:
- Several high-profile attacks that have occurred in Europe and the US in over the holidays highlight the growing threat radicalized attackers pose to soft targets.
- The attacks are emblematic of a broader trend toward radicalization in Europe and the US.
- Despite increased security at public events in the near future, soft and high-profile targets will continue to exist.
- When attending public events, it is critical to prioritize safety and maintain situational awareness.
SITUATION ANALYSIS: ATTACKS ON SOFT TARGETS OVER THE HOLIDAYS IN GERMANY AND THE US
Several high-profile attacks against soft targets have occurred in Europe and the US over the holidays the growing threat radicalized attackers pose to high-profile events and public areas with relatively low levels of protection. On Dec. 20, a lone suspect drove a car into a crowded Christmas market in the German city of Magdeburg, leaving five dead and more than 235 injured. While German authorities have primarily characterized the attacker as mentally ill, the suspect published extensive social media posts denouncing Islam and immigration.
Following this, two separate attacks occurred in the US on Jan. 1: first, a man drove a pickup truck into a crowd of New Year’s revelers in central New Orleans, LA, before being killed in a shootout with police officers. The attack left at least 14 people dead and 35 injured, including multiple police officers. The vehicle used in the ramming reportedly had the flag of the Islamic State (IS) attached to it. Later that morning, a truck exploded outside the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada, leaving seven injured. Authorities subsequently determined that the driver, who died in the incident, had filled the car with explosives.
While investigations into the attacks are ongoing and not all details have been released to the public, these attacks share two key traits. Firstly, all attackers exhibited degrees of radicalization that almost certainly motivated their attacks. Secondly, the targeted locations were “soft” targets with relatively high profiles: the Magdeburg and New Orleans attacks occurred at areas where the public had congregated to celebrate key holidays, while the Las Vegas attack appears to have targeted a hotel owned by US president-elect Donald Trump.
REEMERGENCE OF ASYMMETRICAL ATTACKS
The recent attacks are emblematic of a broader trend toward radicalization in Europe and the US. Continued deep political tensions and economic worries are driving widening polarization and popular shifts toward political extremes. Combined with the proliferation of self-radicalizing materials, the current sociopolitical conditions in Europe and the US create fertile ground for disaffected individuals to ultimately engage in indiscriminate violence. While violent extremist groups may attempt to use these factors to drive recruitment with the goal of conducting coordinated attacks, the threat from self-radicalized lone-wolf attackers is likely higher due to their difficulty to detect and prevent.
Although European and US authorities will likely increase security at public events in the near future, soft and high-profile targets will continue to exist. This is inherently true, as the repositioning of security forces will always create new vulnerable areas that attackers may seek to target. A clear example of this is the March 2016 Brussels bombing, in which two attackers exploded suicide vests at check-in at Brussels Airport: while security capabilities were deployed to prevent attacks beyond security or on flights themselves, the attackers exploited the relative lack of security and high crowding present before the airport’s security checks. Similar high-density soft areas are necessarily present in locations where large groups of people attempt to access secure areas.
While specific threats against other high-profile events and soft locations are not currently known, the recent resurgence of asymmetrical attacks highlights threats to similar locations. In the medium term, numerous high-profile events are set to take place across Europe and the US. Germany, for example, will hold general elections on Feb. 23, in the weeks before which large campaign rallies are likely nationwide. In the US, two high-profile events will take place on Jan. 20 when the College Football Playoff National Championship is held in Atlanta and President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated in Washington, D.C. Following this, the Super Bowl will be played in New Orleans on Feb. 9.
ADVICE: HOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY WHEN ATTENDING HIGH-VISIBILITY, HIGH-TRAFFIC EVENTS
When attending events that are highly visible and expected to attract large crowds, it is essential to prioritize your safety and maintain situational awareness.
1. How to Prepare before Attending
Adequate preparation can significantly reduce the risk of harm during security incidents.
- Research Event Details: Review advisories issued by local law enforcement and event coordinators. Familiarize yourself with the event layout, including safety zones, evacuation routes, and medical support areas.
- Prepare Communication Tools: Ensure your mobile phone is fully charged and pre-programmed with local emergency numbers. Carry a portable charger if possible.
- Group Coordination: If attending with others, maintain awareness of their whereabouts. Share essential information, such as contact numbers, to facilitate communication during emergencies.
- Emergency Plan: Identify meeting points in case of separation and share them with your group.
2. What to Do While Attending an Event
Staying alert and mindful of your surroundings is critical to minimizing risk.
- Situational Awareness: Be vigilant for suspicious or out-of-place items, people, or vehicles. Trust your instincts – if something feels wrong, move to a safer area.
- Crowd Positioning: Avoid the center of dense crowds. Stay near the perimeter where exits and hard cover are more accessible.
- Group Safety: Establish a designated meeting point in advance and limit alcohol or other intoxicants to maintain full awareness.
- Responding to Crowd Reactions: If the crowd begins reacting unexpectedly, remain calm and move towards safety.
3. Actions to Take If There is a Crisis Incident
Remaining calm and thinking clearly are key to surviving a crisis.
- Assess Your Situation: Determine whether it is safer to stay put, find cover, or evacuate. If evacuating, choose an accessible escape path away from danger.
- Protect Yourself: If you fall, curl into a protective position and try to stand as soon as possible to avoid being trampled.
- Hide or Fight:
- If evacuation isn’t possible, find a secure hiding place. Turn off lights, silence your phone, and blockade doors with heavy objects.
- Fighting should only be a last resort. Use nearby objects as improvised weapons if necessary.
- During a Vehicle Attack: Seek cover behind natural or artificial barriers that obscure the attacker’s line of sight and block high-speed approaches.
- When Emergency Services Arrive:
- Put down any objects you are holding and raise your hands to show you are unarmed.
- Provide responders with information about the attackers, including their appearance, weapons, and the number of potential victims, if possible.
4. Action and Wellness after a Crisis Incident
After a crisis, prioritize your health and take the following steps:
- Ensure Medical Attention: Seek medical care for injuries, even if they seem minor. Emergency personnel will prioritize the critically injured, but your well-being remains important.
- Account for Your Group: Confirm the safety of everyone in your group and notify loved ones of your status.
- Assist Authorities: Share any factual details, photos, or videos that could aid law enforcement in their investigation.
- Focus on Recovery: Consider seeking counseling or support groups to process the event and support your mental well-being.
These recent events are reminders of why it’s important for organizations to have a strong critical event management strategy in place. Thinking proactively will help you to anticipate, prepare, respond and recover from a disruptive event should it affect you.
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