Haitian President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated July 7. The first lady, Martine Marie Etienne Joseph, was severely injured in the attack.
Armed individuals stormed the residence of President Jovenel Moïse in Pelerin 5, near Port-au-Prince, and fatally shot him in the early hours of July 7; the assassination of the president will create additional political uncertainty and instability in the weeks and months to come. The president’s death has led the government to impose a series of emergency security measures in the country as investigations continue. Several international leaders have condemned the assassination and expressed concern over Haiti’s deteriorating security and political situation.
Prime Minister Claude Joseph has taken charge of the country as its new head of state and declared a state of siege for at least 15 days following the decision of an extraordinary council meeting held a few hours after the president’s death. Under the state of siege, Haiti’s borders are likely to remain closed and a number of constitutional guarantees suspended. The measure has caused severe disruption to international travel after authorities ordered Port-au-Prince’s Toussaint Louverture International Airport (PAP) to suspend all commercial flight operations until further notice. While the measure does not affect humanitarian and diplomatic flights, charter flights remain unable to operate as of early July 8, limiting options for evacuations in the immediate term.
While Haiti has battled gang violence for years, the presidential assassination follows a dramatic spike in violent gang activity, including kidnappings. Recent shootings that killed 15 people, including a journalist and a political activist, in the capital on June 30 sparked public outrage, and international organizations expressed concern over Haiti’s worsening security crisis. Moïse’s assassination at this time generates uncertainty over his succession and increases concerns regarding whether the succession will be carried out following constitutional processes, as well as how the current security and political crises will evolve.
Uncertain Succession for President Jovenel Moïse
The Constitution states that if the presidency becomes vacant at any time beginning with the fourth year of his term of office, the prime minister assumes executive powers temporarily and the National Assembly must meet “within the sixty (60) days which follow the vacancy to elect a new Provisional President of the Republic for the time that remains to complete the mandate.” The constitutional process, which requires the National Assembly to meet in the coming weeks to elect a new provisional president, is highly unlikely to happen within the required timeframe as the National Parliament has been dissolved and only one-third of the senate has been in place since January 2020.
Despite Joseph legally serving as the interim head of state as part of his role as prime minister, questions may soon arise concerning his legitimacy. On July 5, just days before his assassination, Moïse announced his intention to replace Joseph with a different politician, Ariel Henry. Henry has already made statements claiming that he is the rightful prime minister, although Joseph remains firmly in power; the two are likely to clash over succession issues as they unfold. Adding further confusion to the succession, the head of the Supreme Court of Haiti, René Sylvestre, who likely would have been Moïse’s permanent replacement, died of COVID-19 in late June, and his position was left vacant. The uncertainty over who will permanently become the president and how the succession will unfold remains a concern given Haiti’s history of coups and political instability.
As it seems unlikely that the processes outlined in the constitution will be followed without a parliament, Moïse’s successor may be considered illegitimate by most, especially if elections are not held soon. Without a parliament to fulfill its constitutional duty, the political struggle over who will be in power until elections are held could also cause disputes between Joseph and other candidates for succession, especially Henry. Consequently, not only is the line of succession unclear at this time, but once a permanent successor takes power, they are likely to face difficulties proving that they are a legitimate replacement.
Likely Impact on the Ground
The capital’s streets remain almost deserted following the assassination of Moïse, with most people sheltering at home, which is the current advice from most embassies and international organizations in the country as of July 8. However, heightened security has been reported in certain areas of greater Port-au-Prince, especially near Place Saint Pierre on Route de Kenscoff in the southern portion of Pétion-Ville. Almost all businesses in Port-au-Prince have closed, and business disruptions are likely to persist in the short term. The current quiet situation in the capital is subject to rapid change as security forces carry out investigations. Armed clashes in the capital are likely in the coming days.
Haiti’s ongoing political and security issues combined with outcomes of the president’s assassination, such as the potential further delay of the general elections, have the potential to trigger major unrest. Moïse had been ruling by decree after the National Parliament was dissolved in early 2020, and the opposition often accused him of attempting to establish a dictatorship by prolonging his mandate and not organizing legislative elections. This strained political situation has previously generated major unrest. If another political figure attempts to delay elections further, even if due to concerns related to the pandemic, this may trigger highly disruptive and violent unrest resembling the widespread anti-government protests that happened in February.
Gang activity in Haiti, especially in the greater Port-au-Prince area, is likely to continue to pose an elevated security threat in the country in the medium-term. Frequent attacks have overwhelmed the security forces in Haiti in recent weeks, as they have limited capacity and resources to respond. The overland transport disruptions outside of the capital may persist as security forces focus on investigations and maintaining order in the capital. In recent weeks, gangs have been blocking some of Haiti’s main highways, such as Route Nationale 2, and causing shortages of fuel, food supplies, and hospital equipment. If heightened security persists in the capital, it is also possible that gangs increase such activities in areas of the country where law enforcement is less effective.
Proper Preparation Measures for Organizations Operating in the Region
Due to the current security situation in Haiti, and the reported assassination of Haiti's President Jovenel Moïse, as of July 7, 2021, Port-au-Prince's Toussaint Louverture International Airport (PAP) is closed until further notice and flights previously scheduled to land in the capital have been either canceled or diverted. The Dominican Republic has also announced the closure of the land border with Haiti until further notice.
- The US embassy in Port-au-Prince Haiti is closed. Emergencies: +509-2229-8000
- The UK FCDO advises that consular support is not available from the British Embassy in Haiti - at this time. UK citizens in the region are advised to contact the British Embassy in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic for immediate assistance: +1-809-472-7111 (24/7).
- Ambassade de France à Port-au-Prince Haiti: +509 29 99 90 00. Emergencies for French citizens +509 31 90 41 11
Consider the following security precautions:
- Foreign nationals should maintain contact with their nation's embassy and diplomatic representatives in the region. Save critical embassy contact number on your cell phone.
- If possible, register your location and contact information with your nation's embassy.
- Maintain immediate access to diplomatic documents (Passports / Visas)
- Monitor local media and Haitian government communications.
- Consider shelter in place and avoid unnecessary travel until the security situation stabilizes.
- Have sufficient food, water, medical supplies, prescription medications, have sufficient local currency on hand to sustain an extended shelter in place period. Ensure vehicles are fully fueled.
- Establish communications with a trusted source - family, business, government embassy, available security providers. Have a plan if communications fail. Ensure mobile phones are fully charged at all times.
- Avoid protests in the region. Avoid large crowds. Avoid all unnecessary travel - especially in the Port-au-Prince region.
- Avoid established Haitian government checkpoints and security personnel
- If required - consider self-evacuation requirements when land border and commercial aviation options become available.
- Consider available executive protection and physical security options - if necessary or the security situation in the region degrades rapidly.
- Confirm the status of overland road routes, commercial flight options, and land border crossing from Haiti to the Dominican Republic - before travel
- Plan for dedicated evacuation options, contact your corporate security team or insurance provider and establish a plan - if required or the security situation in the region degrades rapidly.
Related Intelligence Alerts
Critical | 7 Jul 2021 | 02:30 PM UTC | Haiti: Acting Prime Minister Claude Joseph declares state of siege across country July 7 /update 2
Critical | 7 Jul 2021 | 09:08 AM UTC | Haiti: Port-au-Prince's International Airport closes following president assassination, July 7 /update 1
Critical | 7 Jul 2021 | 06:31 AM UTC | Haiti: Assailants reportedly shot and killed President Jovenel Moise near Port-au-Prince overnight, July 6/7
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