On August 17, 2021, Reuters reported a group of "unknown gunmen" had attacked a convoy of buses transporting employees of a Nigerian oil and gas company – a contractor of Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria (SPDC) – to its Assa North Gas development project in Ohaji, Imo State. The assault reportedly resulted in the death of one police officer and six company personnel.
While the identities of the perpetrators have yet to be confirmed, based on the attack's modus operandi and location, the likely culprit is the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB) separatist group, which has increased militant activity in Imo and the wider southeast region in 2021. The IPOB and its armed affiliate the Eastern Security Network (ESN), both classified as terrorist entities by the Nigerian government, are a predominately lgbo group that aims to establish an independent nation, Biafra, in south-eastern Nigeria – as was attempted in the lead up to and during the Nigerian Civil War between 1967 - 1970.
Since late 2020, the ESN have routinely conducted small-to-medium scale assaults on state security installations and correctional facilities, including multiple targeted incidents against police stations and officers on duty.
ESN Militant Attacks on the Rise
The group's pace of operations has escalated since January 2021, with government sources claiming that ESN militants have killed at least 127 Nigerian security personnel and attacked over 20 police stations since the beginning of the year. This campaign included a complex attack on a prison in Owerri, when ESN members armed with automatic rifles, rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs), and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) reportedly blasted their way through the facility's administrative block to gain entrance to the prison yard.
Following a prolonged gun battle with prison guards, approximately 1,850 inmates were released. The gunmen also reportedly attacked numerous other government buildings in Owerri, including Imo's Nigerian Police Force Headquarters.
Police and Military Response Likely to Further Radicalize Movement
However, Nigeria's police and military have responded with significant force in attempts to quell IPOB and ESN activities in the southeast, a factor that international commentators have warned will only further radicalize the movement. On August 5, Amnesty International condemned "brutal" police tactics that have led to the killing of 115 people and the arrest of 500 others over the last four months – dozens of whom reportedly have no verifiable link to the group.
Targeting of International Oil Companies Likely to Persist in the Long Term
While there is limited precedent for the IPOB and ESN to engage in targeted attacks against oil installations and their employees, dozens of comparable attacks have occurred by similar groups in southeast Nigeria over the past decade, particularly when state security forces have provided support to the associated projects. Of note, the August 17 attack on the oil and gas convoy also occurred on the same day that President Muhammadu Buhari enacted a new energy bill aimed at providing International Oil Companies (IOCs) with a more structured framework to invest and operate in the region, likely providing additional motivation for militant action.
Such incidents are expected to persist in the long term, and likely to escalate in the weeks and days leading up to and following the trial (date unconfirmed) of controversial IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu, currently being held in Abuja. Of note, the IPOB and ESN have accused the government of kidnapping Kanu in Kenya and forcefully returning him to Nigeria in late June. As a result, Crisis24 assesses that there is a severe threat for IOCs operating in the region, particularly for employees traveling with a visible and limited police presence.
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