Mexico's drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) are likely to maintain elevated levels of violence in the lead-up to the June 2 election and seek to exploit new economic opportunities in the months to come. Central and Southern Mexico will likely continue to experience elevated DTO-related political violence as the organizations look to ensure compliance from incoming candidates. However, the presidential election outcome will probably see a continuation of federal drug policy. In the mid-term, DTOs will work to exploit new opportunities presented by a wave of industrial investment linked to "friend-shoring."
Historically, DTO violence typically increases in the period surrounding Mexican elections. As Mexican electoral regulations heavily limit the ability of incumbents to seek reelection, there is a constant churn of new politicians, particularly in the local elections. DTOs seek to gain the compliance and, sometimes, cooperation of new political candidates, using a combination of financial inducements and threats. Subsequently, political violence is likely to spike as newly elected politicians take office and face competing demands for political protection from rival DTOs, such as the Sinaloa Cartel and the New Generation Jalisco Cartel (Cártel del Jalisco Nuevo Generación, CJNG).
Despite the election being a month away, this election cycle has been exceptionally violent because of the DTOs' demands, with an extraordinarily large number of acts of targeted violence against local politicians. At least 30 political candidates have been killed in recent weeks, around a dozen kidnapped, and more than 75 threatened. The violence is particularly problematic in the central states of Guerrero, Guanajuato, Michoacán, and Jalisco, an area much contested between rival DTOs, as well as the southern states of Chiapas and Oaxaca; Michoacán has seen at least 34 local politicians withdraw from campaigning in response to violent threats. Such violence will likely continue, or even intensify, until after the June 2 election.
However, the presidential election campaign suggests that Mexico's approach to combatting DTOs will see little change over the coming months. The favored candidate for the presidential election is Claudia Scheinbaum of the incumbent Morena party, who, like President Andres Manuel López Obrador, leans towards a softer approach to countering DTO activity; she enjoys a significant lead over her more hardline rival Xóchitl Gálvez of the Strength and Heart for Mexico (Fuerza y Corazón por México) opposition alliance. López Obrador and Sheinbaum both espouse a policy famously summed up by the slogan "Hugs, not bullets" ("Abrazos, no balazos"), in which the government seeks to address the socioeconomic factors that contribute to DTO growth and use a more restrained policy of force against them. If elected, Sheinbaum is likely to essentially continue López Obrador’s approach without an escalation in the "drug war".
Beyond the election, DTOs will likely attempt to exploit Mexico's recent industrial expansion. The trend of "friend-shoring", where the US has sought to shift manufacturing from China to countries diplomatically and geographically closer to itself, has greatly benefited Mexico. Along with the growth of electric vehicle manufacturing, this has contributed to Mexico’s recent displacement of China as the US's largest trade partner. Recent history suggests that DTOs will work to expand revenue through targeting new industries. DTOs do not merely traffic drugs but embrace any activity that can increase revenue, including human trafficking, extortion, industrial theft, fraud, and expansion into legitimate businesses. The emergence of the Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel (Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima, CSRL) has been rooted in the activities of huachicoleros, thieves who steal fuel from the pipelines, especially those in Guanajuato State. The rapid increase of factories and freight shipments between Northern Mexico and the US may lead to DTOs extorting factories by imposing protection rackets through the threat of blockades or violence. Moreover, these gangs may expand direct industrial theft of valuable commodities from factories, ports, or freight trucks into emerging industries and new areas.
DTOs will continue to pose a major challenge not only to government forces but business operations in Mexico in the months to come. While the coming weeks will probably see the continuation of targeted violence against local politicians, DTOs may probe the response of the new government after the election through violent provocations. In any case, they will likely not only continue drug-trafficking activities in their usual areas but will proactively seek to build new opportunities in Mexico's emerging industries, including areas of the country previously considered safe. These efforts will almost certainly pose a challenge to developing industries across the country.
