The June 25 attack outside an LGBTQ bar in downtown Oslo, Norway does not indicate a worsening threat environment for LGBTQ individuals in the country. As the terror incident is an outlier for Norway, Crisis24 has maintained its minimal LGBTQ security rating for Norway. During the attack, the assailant shot and killed two people and injured at least nineteen others outside an LGBTQ bar, a nearby jazz club, and a takeaway food outlet. The London Pub is a popular bar for the LGBTQ community and Norway’s oldest LGBTQ bar.
The incident occurred hours before the start of Oslo’s Pride celebrations; however, on recommendation from the police, organizers canceled pride celebrations in Oslo and the rest of Norway for the weekend. Despite the cancellation and recommendation, demonstrators still walked the route of Oslo’s parade in solidarity with the victims. The attack highlights that terror incidents can occur in any threat environment, including in minimal-threat locations. The situation is still developing, and authorities have yet to determine the motive for the attack and whether the suspect intentionally targeted the LGBTQ community.
Norwegian intelligence services (PST) describe the incident as “Islamist terrorism.” The suspect, charged with terrorist acts, murder, and attempted murder, is a Norwegian citizen originally from Iran. Despite efforts by police, the suspect has so far refused to speak with authorities. However, investigators are considering a hate crime against the LGBTQ community as a motive for the attack.
While authorities have not confirmed whether the LGTBQ community was the specific target of the attack, it remains a strong possibility as the shooting occurred during pride month, outside an LGBTQ bar, and just hours before Oslo’s pride parade was scheduled to begin. Reports indicate that the suspect had a history of mental illness and has been known to Norwegian intelligence services since 2015 for his association with an Islamic extremist network. In addition, the PST reportedly spoke to the suspect last month in connection with concerns about his radicalization; however, they did not identify any “violent intent.”
Counter-terrorism Measures
While this is the second major terror incident the country has seen within a year, terrorist attacks are uncommon in Norway, and hate crimes targeting the LGBTQ community are rare. In October 2021, a Danish man carried out a bow-and-arrow attack that killed five people and injured three in the town of Kongsberg. Norway’s intelligence service categorized the attack as an “act of terror.” Police had also previously been in contact with the perpetrator, as there were concerns that he was radicalized after converting to Islam. The attack was Norway’s deadliest since July 2011, when a far-right extremist killed 77 people by setting off a bomb at government headquarters in Oslo and shooting at a youth Labour Party camp on the island of Utoya.
Even in countries with robust counter-terrorism measures, single perpetrator terror incidents are difficult to predict and prevent. Following the 2021 Kongsberg attack, Norway’s intelligence agency said in a statement that such attacks are “highly difficult to anticipate and prevent and are likely to happen again in any open society such as Norway.” The counter-terrorism chief of Norway’s intelligence services also said, “This type of attack performed by a person on an impulse with simple means will happen again.” Traditionally, terrorism in Norway poses a low threat, but there have been multiple far-right attacks and foiled planned attacks in recent years, such as the 2011 attack and an incident in 2019. Since the 2011 attack, security services have thwarted several planned terror attacks.
Norway’s LGBTQ Security Environment
Norway is often categorized as one of the world’s most LGBTQ-friendly countries, with a high societal acceptance of LGBTQ individuals. Norwegians have an overall accepting attitude toward sexual orientation and gender identity, and Norway was one of the first countries to establish anti-discrimination laws for the LGBTQ community. In 2022, Norway ranked fourth among 49 European countries in the 2022 ILGA-Europe annual Rainbow Europe Map, an index used to rank European countries on their legal and policy practices for LGBTQ people. Crisis24 has previously categorized the threat environment toward LGBTQ people in Norway as minimal (the lowest category).
While details regarding the Oslo attack are still unclear, the attack has not changed Norway's legal and social environment. Furthermore, Norwegian politicians and citizens have widely condemned the attack. Extremist organizations have not targeted the LGBTQ community in Norway. Authorities and the PST are also on higher alert for similar attacks, as following the incident, the PST raised Norway’s terror rating from “moderate” to “extraordinary.” Currently, there is no evidence that this attack was part of a coordinated effort by multiple assailants. Therefore, with the information available, the threat environment in Norway for the LGBTQ community has not changed.
Related Resources
It’s vital for organizations to understand the unique risks inherent to the LGBTQ community, particularly when traveling to higher-risk destinations, and to discuss duty of care responsibilities for your global workforce. Tune in to this episode of The Risk Insight, where host Neil Sachs sits down with intelligence analysts and PRISM contributors, Jessika Turner and Danielle Ellam, to discuss the importance of a risk management program that factors in potential threats to LGBTQ personnel and considerations to ensure the safety of your employees.
About the Periodic Risk Intelligence & Security Monitor (PRISM) Report
The annual subscription assesses the threat environment faced by members of the LGBTQ community. Each quarterly and annual report provides in-depth country assessments and trend analyses of global attitudes, events, and issues that have the potential to affect the safety of LGBTQ individuals. Included are country-by-country security risk rating and trend analysis assessments for more than 200 countries, in-depth assessments of threats in areas of higher risk; details of events and ongoing issues for LGBTQ individuals; global developments that significantly impact the safety, security, and rights of the LGBTQ community; and LGBTQ Security Risk Rating maps to help you make informed decisions.
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