On August 31 Pakistan’s Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) announced it had killed eleven militants from the Islamist group Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP, or ISIS-K) in raids conducted in the Mastung district of Baluchistan province, approximately 45km southeast of the provincial capital, Quetta. ISKP, founded in 2014, comprises largely of Pakistani and Afghan nationals that became disenfranchised with the Taliban for not being extreme enough. Its first fighters broke away and pledged allegiance to the late IS leader, Abu Bakh al-Baghdadi, with the group now representing one of the Taliban’s most violent adversaries in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The CTD operation was the latest in a series of raids targeting Islamist militant actors within the province, with officers seizing suicide belts and jackets, hand grenades, explosives and assault rifles.
Media reports suggest the CTD has become increasingly concerned by the potential fallout stemming from the situation in Afghanistan and that the department is believed to be overhauling its existing structures in order to improve its responsiveness to future interstate threats. Furthermore, some former Pakistani intelligence officials have told national media that they hope Pakistan will forge an agreement with the Taliban to prevent their respective countries being used as platforms from which competing militant groups attack one another.
Chinese Infrastructure and Personnel Targets for Islamist Militant Groups
Problematically, the presence of Islamist (and separatist) militant groups across Pakistan is not primarily a future threat to domestic and foreign interests as the country has witnessed multiple terrorist attacks targeting foreigners in the recent past, particularly against Chinese nationals and operations. These attacks against Chinese infrastructure and personnel were previously primarily perpetrated by separatists but Islamist militant groups such as ISKP have now also stepped up targeting foreign activity in country.
In Baluchistan alone, islamist militant group Tehrik-i-Taliban (TTP) narrowly missed their target, China’s Ambassador to Pakistan Nong Rong, during his visit to Quetta in April 2021 when attackers detonated a vehicle born explosive device (VBIED) at a luxury hotel in the city, killing five people. ISKP also claimed responsibility for an attack in July when a suicide bomber attacked a bus carrying workers, resulting in 13 people killed, including nine Chinese nationals; as well as an attack in August against a motorcade of the Gwadar East Bay Expressway Project, part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China immediately called for an urgent and swift response from Islamabad to protect organizations and projects and punish the perpetrators - likely resulting in the increased activities of the CTD.
Extension of the Economic Corridor Through Afghanistan Now Unlikely
Baluchistan is one of Pakistan’s most mineral-rich provinces, and despite security challenges, weak institutions and regulatory frameworks and water scarcity, it remains home to an amass of mineral extraction projects, including three large-scale mining projects: Saindak, Dudder, and Reko-diq (Sainduk and Dudder are operated by Chinese company China Metallurgical Construction Corporation (MCC)). It is also home to a strategic port, located in Gwadar, and, as one of the key provinces along the Economic Corridor, is home to some 10,000-15,000 Chinese nationals.
There is further speculation that China could seek to extend the Economic Corridor through to Afghanistan; a country estimated to hold energy and mineral deposits worth between USD1-3 trillion. Indeed, Chinese Communist Party officials are understood to have been discussing security and economic interests with the Afghanistan Taliban for months, hastened by the group’s complete takeover of the country in August. However, with existing fragility in Pakistan and current conditions in Afghanistan unlikely to change for the foreseeable future, the consensus suggests plans to expand across the region are unlikely given the risk of significant blowback.
Threat in Pakistan Constantly Evolving
Fighting between Pakistani security forces and militants is likely to increase across Baluchistan in the immediate to short term, and recent militant activity shows the nature of the threat in Pakistan is evolving, with both separatist and Islamist groups gradually refocusing their attention on Chinese and foreign interests. CPEC, which is scheduled to expand across Pakistan, offers these groups the opportunity to target both Pakistani and Chinese interests, complicating efforts to secure protection. The deterioration of the security situation in Afghanistan, coupled with the changing nature and increasing number of attacks against Chinese strategic interests within Pakistan will therefore require employers and individuals providing services in-country to remain highly vigilant.
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