Summary
A year on from when Europe’s hottest summer on record sparked an extremely active 2021 wildfire season across southern parts of the continent, the summer of 2022 is developing into a similarly hot, dry, and fiery one. Major fires broke out across many parts of the region in June and July amid searing heatwaves that have impacted much of the continent. Above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall levels are forecast to continue August-September as favorable conditions for wildfire activity look set to persist for the rest of the season.
Overview
Wildfires, commonly referred to as forest fires in some parts of Europe, can occur in many parts of the European continent year-round; the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) recorded fires in 22 out of the 27 EU member states in 2021. However, the fires that tend to cause the most disruptions, casualties, and economic losses typically coincide with the summer months between June and September and are most pronounced in the Mediterranean region due to its hot and dry climate. Historically, areas that have witnessed the most significant impacts from wildfires include parts of southern France, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Turkey. Fires in the region can lead to evacuations, road closures, and ground transport diversions. While the emergency services are typically able to contain such fires and implement effective route diversions, authorities could declare local states of emergency to facilitate the emergency response to severe incidents. When fires prove difficult to contain and spread rapidly, they can cause widespread destruction to habitats and property and in some severe events, lead to loss of life amongst the local population.
In order for a wildfire to develop, it needs a fuel (normally dry vegetation or other organic debris) and an ignition source, such as a lightning strike or human activity. Once the fire is ignited, its progression depends on several factors: the type, amount, and moisture content of the available fuel; the topography and landscape of the fire location; and the prevailing climatic conditions, including the wind direction. Hot and dry conditions are often a precursor to an active wildfire period, as the heat reduces moisture content in the vegetation and makes it easier for sparks to ignite a fire. Therefore, wildfire activity trends generally mirror temperature and rainfall patterns. When seasonal temperatures are above average and precipitation levels are below average, conditions become more favorable for a more active wildfire season.
After a Record-Breaking 2021, Is Southern Europe Set for Another Active Wildfire Season in 2022?
While summers in southern Europe are typically hot and dry, record-breaking heatwaves across the region in the summer of 2021 created an environment even more conducive to wildfire activity than usual. EU scientists have reported that 2021 was the hottest European summer on record. Temperatures were on average 1 C higher than the 1991-2020 average, and a provisional heat record for the whole of Europe of 48.8 C (119.8 F) was recorded in Sicily, Italy, late August. Several major fires occurred across the region, including in the outskirts of major cities, such as Athens, and in the popular tourist destinations of Bodrum in Turkey, Evia in Greece, and Catalonia in Spain. The large fires threatened the homes and businesses of thousands of people across the region and led to numerous evacuations of threatened areas. The fires also killed 86 people across the region.
During 2021, the EFFIS mapped over 7,000 fires across 43 countries in Europe and parts of the Middle East and North Africa region that burned a total of 1,113,464 hectares. The 2021 wildfire season was the second most severe wildfire season since records began in 2000, surpassed in damages only by the wildfires of 2017, which included unprecedented fires on the Iberian Peninsula in June and October that claimed the lives of more than 100 people. There was a significant peak in fire activity in July and August, unsurprisingly coinciding with the hottest months of the summer.
Table 1. Wildfires and areas burned mapped by EFIS satellite imagery in 2021
Greece and Turkey felt some of the heaviest impacts from wildfires in 2021. Greece saw a 632% increase in areas affected compared to the 2008-2020 average and an increase of 324% in the area burned compared to the summer of 2020. The 2021 fires were the worst wildfire season in Greece since 2007 and saw a total of around 125,000 hectares of land burned. The largest fire of the summer occurred in Evia and burned over 50,000 hectares in early August. The fire destroyed large swathes of the island’s north, burned down hundreds of homes, and ferries were deployed to evacuate around 2,000 people from the island. Turkey saw more than 200 wildfires break out in July and August alone, and over 170,000 hectares were burned in the worst wildfire season recorded in the country’s history. Authorities reported nine fatalities, including at least two firefighters. Tens of thousands of people were forced to evacuate, including thousands of tourists from hotels in the holiday resort of Bodrum. Disaster zones were declared in parts of Adana, Antalya, Mersin, Mugla, and Osmaniye provinces in southern Turkey.
2022 Southern Europe Wildfire Season Activity and Outlook
In a similar vein to 2021, extremely high temperatures look set to prevail across much of the continent during the summer of 2022 and will provide conducive conditions for an active wildfire season. Much of Europe has already experienced record-breaking heat in early summer as two significant heatwaves impacted large swathes of the continent in June and July 2022. Warm air pushing in from North Africa spread across the Iberian Peninsula and into France mid-June before extending across much of western, central, and eastern Europe. The second heatwave followed a roughly similar pattern in early-mid July, arriving first in Portugal, Spain, and France before spreading northwards and eastwards across much of the continent. During these heatwaves record, June and July temperatures were set in many parts of Europe, including areas of Spain, Portugal, France, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Croatia, Slovenia, the UK, and Norway. All-time record temperatures were set in several cities, and temperatures above 40 C (104 F) were recorded in the UK for the first time ever July 19. Along with the high temperatures, precipitation levels have also been lower than normal across many parts of Europe. Drought conditions are impacting many areas, including parts of northern Italy, where a state of emergency has been declared across Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Lombardy, Piedmont, and Veneto regions. Restrictions on water usage have been implemented in affected areas.
Amid the hot and dry conditions, wildfires have been reported in many areas in the early months of summer. Areas affected by significant fires in June and July include parts of Spain, Portugal, southern France, Greece, Turkey, and as far north as Brandenburg State in Germany. Many fires have forced the evacuation of local communities, as well as road closures and other disruptions in affected areas. Fires in Castile and Leon and Navarre autonomous communities in Spain that broke out amid the heatwave in mid-June were the worst recorded fires in the respective region’s history in terms of area burned. More than 74,000 hectares were burned by fires across Spain during the heatwave period in June, making it the worst recorded wildfire season since 2003, before the height of summer had even begun. Further severe wildfires occurred across parts of Portugal, Spain, and southwestern France during the second major heatwave in July. Authorities in Portugal declared a state of contingency situation across continental Portugal July 11-17 due to the extreme threat of forest fires during the heatwave. Multiple fires broke across Portugal and Spain amid the sweltering conditions, and wildfire-related fatalities were reported in Spain’s Castille and Leon Autonomous Community and Portugal’s Vila Real District. Two major fires south of Bordeaux in southwestern France in mid-July forced the evacuation of more than 30,000 people in the region. By the end of July, the 2022 wildfire season already ranks among the most active seasons on record in terms of areas burned, and around half of the season still remains.
Image 1. EFFIS fires mapped by satellites June 1 – July 31, 2022
Differing colors depict the various dates of the fire and are not representative of size.
Meteorologists are predicting above-average temperatures to continue for much of Europe August-September. Precipitation levels are generally forecast to be close to normal across much of the Mediterranean in the same period; however, normal precipitation levels are relatively low at this time of year. Slightly below average precipitation levels are forecast in more northern parts of the continent during this period. In summary, 2022 is predicted to be another above-average wildfire season across southern Europe as the recent pattern of hotter and drier summers looks set to continue for another year. Given the activity levels that have already been recorded in June and July, it will likely ultimately be one of, if not the, most severe wildfire seasons on record.
Images 2a-2d. EFFIS Seasonal Forecast of Temperature and Rainfall Anomalies
Darker red/orange colors depict areas where temperatures are forecast to be above the seasonal average and where rainfall is expected to be below average and the blue colors portray the opposite. The darker the shade the more anomalous the temperature or rainfall variance from the seasonal average.
2a. August Temperature Anomalies
2b. August Rainfall Anomalies
2c. September Temperature Anomalies
2d. September Rainfall Anomalies
Combating the Threat
In the face of what appears to be an ever-increasing threat from wildfires across much of the continent, authorities are continually looking at ways to meet the challenge. Ahead of the 2022 peak wildfire season, the EU has expanded its rescEU fleet of shared planes and helicopters to combat wildfires across the EU and other partner nations outside the bloc. The fleet of 13 firefighting aircraft was fully operational as of June 16 and is strategically positioned across the continent, ready to be deployed during incidents that overwhelm the capabilities of local emergency services. The force was deployed to combat fires in Portugal, France, and Slovenia amid the heatwave in mid-July. Bulgaria, Finland, France, Germany, Romania, and Norway have deployed more than 200 firefighters and specialist equipment to Greece to provide support to local responders throughout the summer. Turkey has also bolstered their aerial firefighting fleet for 2022 following the devastating fires of 2021.
Aside from improving firefighting capabilities and developing greater mutual aid practices, scientists are also calling for European countries to incorporate enhanced risk reduction planning into their wildfire mitigation strategies. Authorities are being urged to consider increased year-round integrated fire management approaches such as controlled-burning and fire breaks to reduce the potential impact of wildfires, as well as a greater emphasis on urban planning to avoid building near areas where the fire risk is extreme. Improved monitoring and stricter enforcement of regulations regarding land use and forest activities also play a key role in reducing the potential impact of wildfires.
Impact of Wildfires
Wildfires can result in loss of life or impact public health, and cause economic, environmental, property, and infrastructure damage. Besides increasing air pollution, smoke from wildfires can hurt the eyes, irritate the respiratory system, and worsen chronic heart and lung diseases. Smoke may also worsen symptoms for people with pre-existing respiratory or heart conditions. People and wildlife may also suffer burns and trauma.
Increased soil erosion is likely across burn scars during bouts of rainfall due to loosened soil and loss of vegetation. Power outages are possible in places due to damaged substations and transmission lines. Intentional power cuts may also be necessary to prevent infrastructure damage or help in preventing the spread of fires.
Supply chain disruptions can occur, especially if wildfires burn across highways and roads or approach large population centers. Wildfires can also lead to evacuations, road closures, and ground transport diversions. Disruptions to arterial roads and the scarcity of alternative routes in some areas mean that significant transport disruptions will increase. Roads in remote regions are likely also to be disrupted for longer periods than urban roads due to their relative inaccessibility.
Low visibility from smoke and possible ashfall could contribute to traffic delays and congestion and prompt short-notice flight disruptions if wildfires occur near airports. Railways can also experience occasional cancellation of services and long delays.
Many warehouses, factories, and other supply chain-related businesses tend to be located in the suburbs, with a higher likelihood of being affected by wildfires as compared to city centers. Wildfires can destroy crops and livestock, resulting in economic losses. Businesses are also likely to be adversely affected by the supply chain disruptions, especially if they require transportation of perishable goods.
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