Geopolitical tensions will likely remain high in the Middle East through at least early May following Iran's missile and drone attack—dubbed Operation True Promise—against Israel overnight April 13-14. The Israeli government has stated that it intercepted nearly all of the Iranian projectiles. Authorities confirmed that a young girl suffered a head injury when debris from an intercepted missile fell on her residence in southern Israel. In addition, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) later stated that minor injuries were detected at a military base in the southern part of the country, with limited material damage to infrastructure. The Nevatim Air Force base in the Negev also sustained light damage, but it apparently remains operational. Reports indicate that at least nine missiles penetrated Israeli territory, with five of them striking the Nevatim Air Base, causing damage to a C-130 military transport aircraft, a runway, and some storage facilities.
Although the Israeli war cabinet convened April 14, it was not immediately clear how the Israeli government would respond to the Iranian attack. The US government has encouraged Israel to exercise restraint. Some hard-liners within the Israeli government, such as Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich and Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, have called for a strong retaliatory response to Iran's attack to reassert Israel's military deterrence in the region. However, Benny Gantz, a member of Israel's war cabinet, has appeared to take a stance that could allow for patience and, potentially, a more moderate response, stating, "We will exact a price on Iran, in the manner and at the time that is right for us."
Israel's Options and Iran's Possible Response
The Israeli government is likely considering two options as it formulates its response to the April 13-14 Iranian attack: it could either directly launch an attack on Iran, targeting officials and/or sites within the country, over the coming hours and days or, alternatively, it could wait and indirectly retaliate, targeting Iran-backed proxy groups or Iranian officials in Iraq, Lebanon, or Syria, after the current high tensions somewhat subside. If Israel chooses to strike Iran, it is very likely that it will target a military or nuclear installation. The Israelis will also likely calibrate their response to limit military casualties. Whichever option Israel chooses, its next move will likely determine the severity of any future Iranian retaliation: if Israel chooses the more severe option, directly attacking Iran, officials in Tehran will probably seek to approximate the high severity level of Israel's attack when preparing a retaliatory action, and vice versa.
Meanwhile, the Iranian government has stated that it considers its retaliation to the suspected Israeli attack on its consulate in Damascus on April 1 to be over. However, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has said that it would launch a more severe attack if the Israeli military were to launch strikes within Iran.
In the event that Israel undertakes a major military action against Iran, Tehran could call on its proxy groups, including Shi'a militias in Syria and Iraq, Hizballah in Lebanon, and the Al-Houthis in Yemen, to intensify their attacks against Israel and its Western and Arab allies. Both sides could also launch cyberattacks on networks used by governmental institutions, private businesses, or other organizations affiliated with the other over the coming weeks.
Iran seized an Israel-linked container vessel, MSC Aries, in the Gulf of Oman April 13, and could target or seize additional ships that are affiliated with Israeli companies over the coming days. Additionally, Tehran has historically detained and imprisoned Western travelers, particularly dual citizens, on politically motivated charges in an attempt to extract concessions. The threat of arbitrary arrest and imprisonment will likely remain high for the foreseeable future.
Disruptions to Business Operations and Transport
In the period immediately preceding and during Iran's April 13-14 attack on Israel, multiple Middle Eastern countries, including Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq, closed their airspace. Some airline companies have also suspended flights to several Middle Eastern cities. For example, Lufthansa (LH), the flag carrier of Germany, has suspended flights to multiple cities through April 18, including Amman, Beirut, Erbil, Tehran, and Tel Aviv. Other airline companies could institute similar measures if the security situation in the Middle East worsens over the coming days.
Israel's Home Front Command (HFC) could also implement various restrictions on short notice. The HFC previously closed schools and banned gatherings of more than 1,000 people in Israel ahead of the Iranian attack; the military has since lifted these restrictions. If the situation worsens, the HFC could implement movement controls, again ban large gatherings, disrupt the Global Positioning System (GPS) to thwart enemy drones and missiles, or close the country's airspace.
Civil Unrest
Demonstrations in response to the Iran-Israel tensions and Israel-Hamas conflict remain likely. Jordanians have regularly protested near the Israeli Embassy in Amman in recent weeks. That the Royal Jordanian Air Force assisted in Israel's defense during the Iranian attack by shooting down Iranian projectiles has further fueled public discontent. Should tensions further escalate between Iran and Israel, the likelihood of disruptive demonstrations in the region will increase.
Analysis
Iran and Israel have engaged in a shadow war for years, shaping the region's geopolitical landscape. The Israeli government views Iran as an existential threat. Iran, in turn, is of the belief that Israel and its Western allies are attempting to destabilize its government. As part of its deterrence doctrine, Israel has regularly taken military action against Iran and its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, and elsewhere.
However, Israel's attack against the Iranian Consulate in Damascus April 1 in which seven IRGC members were killed, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, prompted the Iranian government to forcefully retaliate. Iran's attack against Israel from within its territory, which had never occurred before, marks a significant shift in Tehran's approach to Israel. The Iranian government may again respond to a major Israeli attack on its personnel, assets, or interests in the region in a direct manner. IRGC Commander-in-Chief Major General Hossein Salami said after the attack that should the Israelis target Iran's defense forces and assets in the region, Tehran would counterattack from within its territory. By launching a direct attack April 13-14, Iran's aim is to establish deterrence vis-a-vis Israel.
At this point, both countries are at a place where they can claim victory. Iran, at least in its estimation, has saved face and avenged the deaths of the IRGC members killed in the April 1 strike on its consulate building in Damascus. Meanwhile, Israel has asserted that its defensive performance has showed that its alliance network and multilayered air defense system successfully thwarted Iran's attack. It is unclear, however, if these factors will prevent a further military escalation between the regional adversaries.
