Background
On Nov. 13, a bomb exploded in Istanbul’s busy Istiklal Avenue, killing six and injuring more than 80 people. Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, described the incident as a terrorist attack, while Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu alleged that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) militia were responsible. In the subsequent counterterrorism operation, more than 50 people were detained, including Ahlam Albashir, the woman suspected of planting the bomb.
This latest attack sparks fears that terrorist incidents will increase in the build-up to the legislative and presidential elections in June 2023. Turkey’s internal security forces are likely to step up their counterterrorism activity, and security is likely to be heightened in coming months. National security, though, will be driven by a broader combination of external and internal factors, including the struggling economy and increasingly divided population.
International Security
President Erdogan dominates Turkish politics. Elected president in 2014, he had previously been prime minister since 2003. A social conservative and populist, Erdogan successfully mobilized his supporters in 2016 to respond to an attempted coup and subsequently won his second presidential term in 2017. Erdogan has maintained strongly independent and nationalist policies in his international relationships. He aggravated NATO in his cooperation with Russia over Syria, provoked allies by buying Russian S-400 missile systems, obstructed Sweden’s accession to NATO over Stockholm’s position on PKK activists, and continues to make inflammatory statements against NATO-partner country Greece. However, his continued dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin has facilitated negotiations: Ankara has been credited with the successful Black Sea Grain Initiative of July 2022, which provides security guarantees to enable grain exports to resume from Ukrainian ports. He will likely play a key role whenever there is a possibility of genuine peace negotiations in the Ukraine conflict.
Internal Security
As well as Greece, Cyprus, and Bulgaria, Turkey has borders with Syria, Iraq, Iran, Armenia, and Georgia, and, by controlling Black Sea access, influences Russia and Ukraine. The region’s conflicts increase domestic instability. According to the UN, Turkey hosts more refugees than any other country globally, at 3.7 million. Various activist, terrorist, and international criminal groups operate in this geostrategic crossroads. The country does however have a capable and effective internal security apparatus.
The history of the Kurdish peoples pre-dates modern national boundaries, but the concept of an independent homeland grew in the late twentieth century as Kurds became increasingly marginalized across the region. The PKK was formed in the 1970s since when it has waged an often violent campaign for autonomy. Negotiations have taken place with Turkish authorities over many years, but the Syrian civil war made the situation more complex, especially with Western backing for Kurdish groups against the common enemy of Islamic State (IS). The YPG, who are suspected of the Nov. 13 Istanbul attack by Turkish authorities, were formed after the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011. The group is affiliated to the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), and has a female militant counterpart, the Women’s Protection Units (YPJ). Turkish authorities claim that all these groups are linked to the PKK and are responsible for crossborder violence.
There have been numerous Kurdish-backed terrorist attacks in Turkey in recent years, including an intense period between 2015-17 when several hundred people, mainly Turkish government officials and members of the security forces, were killed. In the same period, Turkey also experienced attacks by IS, which targeted Kurdish interests and tourism sites. In March 16, an IS-backed suicide bomber killed five on the same street as the Nov. 13 attack. Since 2018, IS has been largely neutralized in Syria and the Turkish National Intelligence Organization has significantly degraded the PKK. The number and severity of terrorist attacks has therefore reduced, making the Nov. 13 attack the worst for at least four years. Many of the lower-level attacks in the interim targeted Turkish security forces in the southeast of the country, and away from the centers of Ankara and Istanbul.
Economy and Society
Turkey’s two biggest challenges are its economy and its divided society. The economy has suffered badly since mid-2021. Previously achieving sustained growth of around 5 percent per year, inflation has risen from around 10 percent in late 2020 to more than 80 percent, while the lira has devalued rapidly, caused in part by the central bank keeping interest rates low as inflation rose. Many younger Turks have emigrated, prompted by poor domestic prospects, which further has impacted future growth potential. Society has become increasingly polarized between the more rural, poor, and religious classes, and the more secular, educated, and western-leaning groupings. Erdogan’s electoral base is the former, and in both of his presidential terms he has legislated to increase pressure on civil society institutions and the media, to reduce parliamentary scrutiny, and to erode human rights.
Outlook
Speaking on Oct. 28 to mark the 99th anniversary of the Turkish Republic, Erdogan effectively launched his campaign for re-election. He promised greater international influence for Turkey, rights for women, and also to protect family values in what was seen as an attack on minority groups. Days later, on Nov. 4, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the main opposition leader and Erdogan’s likely challenger for the presidency, became the first target of a new “media disinformation” law. Police asked prosecutors to investigate the leader of the Republican People’s Party for criticizing the government’s response to drug trafficking.
In the coming months, Erdogan is likely to step up his populist rhetoric. There will likely be increasing attacks on the media and civil society networks, and security clampdowns targeting Kurdish groups. He is also likely to capitalize on his status on the world stage, as an intermediary in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while also remaining outspoken against Greece and others on nationalist causes. Security authorities are likely to remain at heightened levels of alert, maintaining a visible presence in tourist and other key areas, and potentially deploying in greater numbers to the border regions with Syria. Further attacks are possible, whether linked to election campaigning or as part of the longer-term terrorist activity. Such attacks will remain more likely in the southeast of the country and Turkish security authorities will continue counterterrorism operations to aggressively deter and disrupt this activity.
Crisis24 provides in-depth intelligence, planning, and training, as well as swift and actionable responses to keep your organization ahead of emerging risks. Contact us to learn more.
Author(s)
