More than 100,000 refugees crossed the Poland-Ukraine border in a single day Feb. 28 as local authorities sped up reception processes.
As the Russian offensive in Ukraine continues on multiple fronts, conflict-related disruptions are being reported throughout the country. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) states around 660,000 refugees have left Ukraine as of Mar. 1 and expects upwards of four million people to ultimately flee the conflict. The vast majority of refugees are women, children, and the elderly given that Ukraine has banned males aged 18-60 from leaving the country amid a general military mobilization.
Kyiv has imposed martial law nationwide, and curfew and other measures are in place at the city and regional level where required for the defense of the country and the security of its citizens. Russian ground attacks and aerial bombardments, as well as Ukrainian military activity and restrictions, further disrupt road and rail movements throughout the country. Particularly severe disruptions have been reported on major roads heading towards the country’s western borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova, to which refugees from Ukraine are fleeing. Civil aviation has been suspended, greatly exacerbating ground travel disruptions.
Status of Border Crossings
Local authorities continue to report long queues, congestion, and crowding at many of Ukraine’s western border crossings with Europe. Border crossings with Russia, Belarus, and Moldova’s pro-Russian enclave of Transnistria are closed. The Poland-Ukraine border continues to see the most traffic; authorities have recorded over 370,000 refugees making the crossing since the outbreak of hostilities. Wait times are severe, with some refugees reporting delays of up to 60 hours. However, local authorities are apparently streamlining the reception process; over 100,000 refugees were registered Feb. 28. The Medyka-Shehyni road and rail crossing has seen the most traffic and will likely remain the most congested crossing over the coming days.
Extremely long queues have also been reported at border crossings into Moldova, where wait times have been reported between 15 and 30 hours. Some refugees have reported waiting in vehicle queues for over 24 hours, before reaching border crossings between the southwestern city of Odesa and the Moldovan border. Romania has also reported queues of up to 30 hours to enter the country as of Mar. 1, while queues to enter Slovakia and Hungary are notably shorter than elsewhere, averaging around 12 hours depending on the exact crossing.
While congestion at border crossings is expected to ease in the coming days as the first major wave of refugees is processed and subsides - and neighboring countries adapt resources to meet the new requirement – refugee flows will almost certainly change in line with conflict developments in Ukraine. Russian aerial bombardments and the threat of ground assaults will likely spark waves of migration towards Ukraine’s western borders. While congestion and disruption are currently severe, the EU has proposed laws to ease the passage of Ukrainians into their territory, which will likely reduce wait times and related congestion in the future.
Movement by Road
Reports also indicate severe traffic congestion on roads leaving major cities, as well as on major roads heading west. While the severe congestion that was seen in and around Lviv on Feb. 24-25 appears to have subsided, major traffic queues continue to be intermittently reported leaving other cities as they suffer aerial bombardment or as Russian troops approach. The severe congestion of major routes has prompted the heavy use of secondary roads, which are generally of a much poorer standard than major roads and highways. Territorial defense units and armed civilian militias have reportedly erected checkpoints on rural and secondary roads to prevent fighting-aged males from attempting to flee the country.
Road conditions in Ukraine are generally below Western European standards. Potholes are a common hazard on more rural roads. At this time of year, driving conditions can also be challenging due to ice and it is not uncommon for snow to block secondary roads for several hours. Additionally, Ukraine has reportedly destroyed several key bridges to slow the advance of Russian troops.
Movement by Rail
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) services have been operating throughout the conflict; however, service has been intermittent. The operator has suspended regular services and focused on providing long-distance evacuations for residents of Kyiv and other conflict-impacted cities to Lviv and Odesa. The service provider is also operating regular international trains from Chop, near Lviv, to Poland and Hungary free of charge.
However, UZ has been unable to guarantee services; while at least two evacuation trains are generally scheduled to leave Kyiv daily, they are occasionally subject to cancellation due to the presence of Russian forces on the northern, western, and south-western outskirts of the capital. It is unclear whether Russian forces will continue to allow the transit of evacuation trains should they complete the encirclement of Kyiv; Russian forces attempting the encirclement of Mariupol as of Mar. 1 have indicated they will leave evacuation corridors for civilians open.
Services to areas facing heavy Russian bombardment or ground attack, such as Kherson and Kharkiv, have been repeatedly canceled. However, both suburban and evacuation trains continue to operate in the conflict-affected Poltava, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia regions, while evacuation trains are operating from government-controlled areas of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. UZ is also operating suburban services in some western regions including Odesa and Rivne. Though, the availability of these services changes daily. In some cases, schedules may change, or services may be canceled without warning. As expected, there has been significant demand for available services, particularly in Kyiv and Lviv, leading to tense scenes on trains and station platforms. While no injuries have been widely reported, some brief skirmishes have broken out. Large crowds, which can sometimes appear unruly, continue to be reported in Lviv in particular.
Other Concerns
There is a shortage of accommodation in the border areas of neighboring countries as much is already occupied by refugees and volunteers. Local authorities, UNHCR, and other agencies have erected some temporary accommodations and are distributing essential relief items, including blankets, sleeping bags and hygiene items.
Reports continue to emerge of some third-country nationals, particularly those of outwardly African or Asian appearance, including some students, facing challenges entering Poland or boarding evacuation trains from Kyiv and Lviv. The passage of these nationals is likely to ease as multiple foreign governments and the UNHCR engage with Polish authorities.
Weather conditions in western Ukraine deteriorated overnight into Mar. 1 with snow falling amid freezing temperatures. Given the time of year, adverse weather conditions remain likely and present additional hazards to asylum seekers. Additionally, with the approach of spring, Ukraine can be subject to heavy rains that may prompt flooding and disrupt road travel.
Additional Expert Insights
Guide: Risk Intelligence & Security Recommendations for Personnel in Ukraine (PDF) | Access Now
From the Experts: Tensions Between Russia and Ukraine Continue to Escalate (Feb. 2022) | Read Now
Intelligence Briefing: Ongoing Tensions Between Russia & Ukraine (Feb. 2022) | Watch On-Demand
Intelligence Briefing: Risk Assessment of Rising Tensions between Russia & Ukraine (Dec. 2022) | Watch On-Demand
For an in-depth analytical assessment of the Russia/CIS region, request a copy of the 2022 Global Risk Forecast.
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