US Elections: The Imperative for Preparedness in a Close Presidential Race

Following recent events, the polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in a tight race for the presidency, which increases the likelihood of election-related protests and violence that could disrupt business operations regardless of who is declared the winner. To fully understand the implications that this may have on your organization, we must look at how state election laws impact voter tallies, which, in turn, can lead to increased civil unrest beyond the nation’s capital.  

At-a-Glance: Key Takeaways 

• The winner of the presidential election is unlikely to be known on election night, adding to the probability of election-related unrest.
• The way in which several key states count ballots will likely create false hope for partisans of either candidate, which could fuel protests.
• The political atmosphere in the US is already highly polarized, with only one-third of Republicans believing the 2020 election was legitimate and over two-thirds of Democrats believing Trump poses a threat to democracy.
• Some local election officials may refuse to certify results; besides, procedures regarding certification are already unclear, with litigation regarding certification pending in Georgia.
• Following the unrest on Jan. 6, 2021, police will likely stage disruptive operations in Washington, DC, and state capitals on key dates associated with the upcoming election.
• Businesses should begin preparations for election-related disruptions now to avoid being caught off guard

A Close Presidential Election is Highly Likely  

Following recent events, polls have shown that the presidential race is tightening, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump nearly equally likely to win. Currently, the Democratic candidate is leading in three of the seven key battleground states that will decide the election.  

However, unless the lead substantially widens, the prospect of a close election may bring about political uncertainty following Nov. 5. In fact, since Harris and Trump’s poll numbers are so close to one another, it is unlikely that the presidential winner will be known on election day. Because a significant portion of Trump’s supporters believe the most recent presidential election was unfair, they may take to the streets if the former president loses again in 2024. Trump’s detractors, meanwhile, will likely stage demonstrations if he wins. 

Any uncertainty surrounding the election will troublingly feed into long-standing polarization and political grievances within the country. Polls show that only about one-third of Republicans believe that Biden’s 2020 election was legitimate, and many Republicans will likely view Harris’ election as also illegitimate should she win in November, which could lead to civil unrest as it did on January 6.

Similarly, polls also show that over two-thirds of Democrats believe that the country’s democracy could be at risk if Trump is elected, and the very strong opposition to Trump that many Democrats feel could likely lead to protests if he wins.  For instance, major demonstrations were seen in Washington, DC, in the days before and after Trump’s 2017 inauguration, and similar protests could occur again in early 2025.

The Implications of a Prolonged Ballot Count on Political Uncertainty  

A tight election is likely to trigger a prolonged period of uncertainty about the election as officials count ballots, which may be aggravated by varying state election laws. The way several key states tally votes may cause political uncertainty, confusion, and claims of fraud. Furthermore, some local officials may refuse to certify vote tallies, throwing the result of the election into doubt, which may spur the likelihood of protests and violence that could affect business operations.  

Swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin typically take longer to count their ballots due to state laws that only allow the processing of mail-in votes on or after election day. This delay can contribute to uncertainty that can lead to potential unrest. In Nevada, the process is even slower due to laws that permit mail-in ballots to be received days after election day. If discrepancies in voters' signatures arise, voters then have additional time to rectify them, further delaying results.

The way votes are counted may cause false hopes for one candidate's supporters, exacerbating polarization. Recent trends show Republicans are likelier to vote in person, while Democrats favor mail-in ballots. This can lead to an initial skew in results, with in-person votes counted first, showing a lead for Republicans, which is then narrowed as mail-in ballots are tallied. This pattern can fuel perceptions of fraud and prompt protests.

A further concern is that local officials may refuse to certify election results, leading to litigation that leaves final vote counts uncertain. For example, the Democratic Party has sued the Georgia State Election Board over rules regarding certification, fearing local officials might treat certification as discretionary. Similar lawsuits are possible in other states, which could complicate vote-certification procedures. In 2020, some local officials briefly refused to certify results, which ultimately did not affect the election outcome. However, in 2024, multiple boards may refuse certification, which could increase uncertainty.

Elections Preparedness: When and Where Should Organizations Be Concerned

Outside of the DC area, major cities in swing states are more vulnerable to election-related unrest due to their political significance and history of contentious elections. These include Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.  

Key dates that could trigger unrest include:

• Nov. 5: Election Day, with ballot counting continuing in the following days
• Dec. 17: Electors cast their ballots in state capitals.
• Jan. 6: Congress certifies the electoral votes.  
• Jan. 20: Inauguration Day

Authorities will likely carry out major security operations on these days. Because police came under heavy criticism for their failure to quickly disperse crowds at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, security forces are likely to err on the side of caution during this electoral cycle by closing roads, erecting large barriers around government buildings, and deploying significant contingents of officers armed with riot shields and teargas in case demonstrations become unruly.

How Organizations Should Prepare Ahead of the Elections  

Organizations operating in these areas must remain vigilant and prepare for possible disruptions. Fortunately, the fact that unrest is particularly likely at specific times allows companies to prepare to respond to any violence well in advance. Firms can accomplish this by determining what conditions will trigger action to mitigate risk. For example, a candidate claiming the election was marred by fraud, local election boards failing to certify results in a timely matter, any confusion about which slate of electors is permitted to cast ballots, or any call by a campaign or people close to either candidate calling for state legislatures to nullify results, could be potential triggers for action by companies.  

Such action could include:

1. Instructing employees to work from home to minimize their exposure to protests.  
2. Canceling employee travel to swing states as well as Washington, DC.  
3. Boarding up retail locations in central business districts and near governmental buildings.  
4. Suspending some operations if necessary.  
5. Organizational leadership may want to consider opening direct communication with employees.
6. Provide a platform for employees to submit any questions or concerns surrounding the election with an opportunity for a response on how the organization is mitigating those concerns.
7. Schedule crisis plan and mass communication plan exercise.  

Protests like those seen after the 2020 election and even more widespread or violent demonstrations are possible during the current election cycle. In 2020, many businesses in areas such as Washington, DC, and Philadelphia scrambled to respond to protests. However, firms today can prepare for unrest ahead of time by drafting contingency plans that account for possible unrest before, during, and after the election. Companies should also ensure that they can swiftly implement such plans should the situation on the ground trigger action items detailed in them. To learn more about how your business can ensure its preparedness, speak to one of our critical event management experts.