The Al-Houthi's Attack on Tel Aviv Threatens to Expand Israel-Hamas Conflict
On July 19, 2024, the Yemeni Al-Houthi group launched a long-range weaponized drone strike that hit a building near the US diplomatic mission in Tel Aviv, Israel. This was the first time that the Al-Houthis had targeted Tel Aviv. The attack was a clear escalation of the Al-Houthi's involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict. The group has launched more than 200 projectiles, including ballistic missiles and weaponized drones, toward Israeli territory since the Israel-Hamas conflict began in October 2023. Most such weapons have either been intercepted over the Red Sea or near Israeli territory by the US and other states in the region or by Israel’s own defenses. The success of the Al-Houthi attack on Tel Aviv suggests Israel increasingly finds itself in a position of geostrategic vulnerability, with Iran and its proxies appearing to be able to strike a wide variety of Israeli locations from multiple fronts.
Israel's Response May Only Be a Limited Deterrent
Israel retaliated a day later by launching airstrikes against the Yemeni port city of Al-Hudaydah. Israel targeted oil and weapons storage facilities, as well as a power plant, killing six people and injuring more than 80. Israel claimed that the airstrikes were aimed at preventing further Al-Houthi attacks and disrupting their supply lines.
However, it is doubtful that Israel's response will have a lasting effect on the Al-Houthi's ability or motivation to launch more attacks. Precedent shows that air campaigns do little to alter Al-Houthi ambitions or their ability to project force. UK and US airstrikes against Al-Houthi military positions have proven largely ineffective at preventing the Al-Houthis from launching dozens of attacks against vessels in the Red Sea. It remains to be seen whether Israel’s approach will be effective in preventing or dissuading further Al-Houthi attacks.
Israel increasingly finds itself in a strategic conundrum vis-à-vis its ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza. By continuing the war in Gaza, Israel must contend with continuing attacks not only from the Al-Houthis but also from Lebanese Hizballah (LH) and Iran’s proxy forces in Syria and Iraq.
The Implications: Al-Houthi Attacks to Continue despite Israeli Airstrikes
The Al-Houthi attack on Tel Aviv and Israel's retaliation have implications for the region and beyond. The Al-Houthi attack will likely boost the group's propaganda and recruitment. The Al-Houthis are likely to use the political capital provided by Israel’s attack against Al-Hudaydah to justify the mobilization of additional recruits and plot further attacks against targets in Israel and elsewhere.
The Al-Houthis have demonstrated that they are a group that is quick to adapt to changing dynamics and thrives while under attack from its enemies. Israel was forced to respond to the Al-Houthi attack, given its success; however, the country risks encountering a security dilemma if it fails to contain further attacks emanating from Yemen and elsewhere effectively. Should additional Al-Houthi attacks strike targets deep within Israeli territory, target critical infrastructure, or result in significant material damage and loss of life, Israel will likely have to launch a sustained aerial campaign against Al-Houthi positions. The Al-Houthis have consistently stated they will maintain their attacks against Israel so long as the war in Gaza continues, and so long as there is no ceasefire, the current security situation will not improve.
The attack will also put more pressure on Israel, which is already facing multiple threats from Hamas in Gaza, Lebanese Hizballah (LH), and Iran’s proxy forces in Syria and Iraq. Israel will have to balance its need to further deter Al-Houthi attacks with its desire to avoid a wider regional conflagration.
Let Crisis24 be your trusted advisor. Explore Crisis24’s comprehensive services for managing the evolving risks of the Israel-Hamas conflict and ensure your organization’s safety.
Stay up-to-date on countries of interest to you by subscribing to Crisis24 Watchlists and Risk Alerts. Select the topics, countries, and risk alerts you wish to follow and start benefiting from digestible content about issues important to you delivered to your email inbox today.
Author(s)
