South Africa: Protests in support of former president likely in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng provinces through mid-July /update 1

Event

Protests supporting incarcerated former President Jacob Zuma are likely to persist across KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and Gauteng provinces through at least July 12. Protesters have gathered regularly in KZN since Zuma was arrested at Nkandla and jailed in Estcourt, July 7. Gatherings and roadblocks have occurred in and near various cities and towns, including Durban, Ballito, Mooi River, Nkandla, and Richards Bay; gatherings near informal settlements have occurred. Protesters have also blocked primary and secondary road routes, including the N2 and N3.

Protests coinciding with and linked to the Zuma issue were also reported overnight July 10-11 in various areas of Gauteng, including Jeppestown, Denver, Alexandra, Wynberg, Maboneng, and the M2 highway in Johannesburg. A pro-Zuma gathering will reportedly occur in the Kwamai-Mai area of Johannesburg from 12:00, July 11.

These aforementioned areas are likely to experience further disruptive protests in the coming hours and almost certainly until lawyers representing Zuma appeal his jail sentence at the Constitutional Court, July 12. A continuation and possible escalation in protest activity is likely if the July 12 appeal is dismissed. Authorities are likely to deploy security and traffic management personnel to areas where protests occur and previous protest hotspots. Ground travel disruptions are likely near all protest sites. Clashes between protesters and the police are possible if demonstrators ignore police orders to disperse or if protests escalate. Protesters may also engage in further acts of public violence, including looting and attacks targeting commercial transport vehicles.

Context

Zuma was sentenced to 15 months imprisonment after being found guilty of contempt of court, June 29. He was arrested late July 7 and is currently incarcerated at the Estcourt Police Station. An appeal to the Pietermaritzburg High Court to overturn the warrant of execution for his arrest was dismissed, July 7. Zuma will remain in jail until his appeal is heard by the Constitutional Court, July 12. Supporters of Zuma have denounced the sentencing and are likely to continue to protest until he is released. Protest activity is likely to concentrate in KwaZulu-Natal; however, protests outside the province are also likely. Some protest action is also viewed as being opportunistic in nature and linked to local disputes, service delivery demands, and general criminality. Regardless of Zuma's hearing outcome, unrest will continue to be motivated by these issues, particularly in South Africa's major urban centers.

Advice

Avoid all protests. Liaise with trusted contacts for further information on planned and actual protest areas. Consider alternative routes around impact areas. Plan for disruptions to both general travel and the transport of freight. Reconfirm the status of all road routes in the coming days before travel. Heed the directives of the local authorities. Reconfirm all ground public transport services that operate in or through the province before travel.

Resources

i-traffic KZN (Twitter)
ECR Traffic (Twitter)
Jo'burg Metro Police Department