Myanmar: Armed clashes between military and anti-regime groups continue to occur in parts of the country as of Oct. 7 /update 1

Event

Instability continues to impact parts of Myanmar as of Oct. 7 following the February 2021 coup, in which the military (Tatmadaw) ousted the democratically elected government led by the National League for Democracy (NLD). Most parts of Myanmar are under a 22:00-04:00 or 00:00-04:00 nightly curfew, though enforcement varies across the country. Fighting between military troops and armed ethnic groups and the National Unity Government's (NUG) People’s Defense Force (PDF) continue in northern and eastern states and regions. Pro-democracy fighters carry out bombings and targeted killings in urban areas. A civil disobedience movement continues to occur and can impact public services throughout the country, though participation has declined in recent months. Utility outages can occur at short notice.

Armed Clashes
Tatmadaw troops continue to clash with ethnic armed groups and PDF units in parts of Myanmar. Fighting has been most intense in the eastern and northern areas of the country, especially in the following locations:

• Bago Region: Kyaukkyi and Mone townships

• Chin State: Falam, Hakha, Kanpetlet, Matupi, Mindat, and Paletwa townships

• Kachin State: Hpakant, Mohnyin, Momauk, and Shweku townships

• Kayah State: Demoso, Hpruso, and Loikaw townships

• Kayin State: Kawkareik and Myawaddy townships

• Magway Region: Magway, Myaing, Pakokku, Pauk, Taungdwingyi, and Yesagyo townships

• Mon State: Kyaikto, Thaton, and Ye townships

• Rakhine State: Northern regions, including Buthidaung, Kyauktaw, Maungdaw, Minbya, Ponnagyun, and Rathedaung townships

• Sagaing Region: Indaw, Kale, Khin-u, Monywa, Myin-mu, Chaung-U, Pale, Salingyi, Shwebo, and Yinmabin townships

• Shan State: Kokang Self-Administered Zone, Kyaukme, Mabein, Muse, and Pekon townships

PDF command structures and training have improved, and PDF fighters often attack pro-regime forces and installations. The military may respond to PDF attacks with artillery and airstrikes to target the armed group members or villages considered to shelter the fighters. Junta authorities also provide funding and equipment to militias to combat PDF units and other anti-regime groups. Clashes have displaced tens of thousands of residents in affected areas. Authorities will likely maintain heightened security, including checkpoints and road closures, in areas where fighting occurs. Violence is likely to affect transport in the area, especially roads connecting townships. Authorities may cut mobile communications in areas where fighting has intensified. Officials may tighten the curfew hours at short notice in areas that experience an increase in armed clashes.

Anti-regime groups have staged bombings and targeted assassinations of junta members or people considered to support the Tatmadaw and sabotaged military and other government facilities in various urban areas, including Yangon, Bago, and Mandalay. Some activists have also targeted individuals, organizations, and facilities owned by foreign nationals from China and other countries that allegedly support the Tatmadaw. While some explosions in urban areas have caused collateral damage and civilian casualties, most attacks continue to be small-scale with limited injuries and property damage. Additional blasts will likely continue to occur across Myanmar, possibly prompting authorities to impose heightened security and resulting in localized disruptions at the incident sites.

Civil Unrest
Pro-democracy protesters continue to hold demonstrations against the Tatmadaw in urban centers like Yangon and Mandalay, though restrictions on internet services have delayed reporting of many rallies. Spikes in rallies are probable on holidays and other significant dates, such as hearings against NLD leaders such as former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi. Future rallies will likely continue to occur near government buildings, monuments, and public squares nationwide. Military and police personnel may attempt to disperse protests forcibly using water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets, or live ammunition. Activists often block roads near demonstration sites to limit military personnel's mobility.

A civil disobedience movement continues nationwide in the public sector, though the severity of the action varies by location. While overall participation has begun to decline, thousands of government employees continue to strike. Most disruptions are occurring in the medical, utility, and transport sectors. Workers could call for additional strikes, which could exacerbate service disruptions.

Disruptions
Infrastructure and utility disruptions continue to occur nationwide. Civilians and militant groups opposed to the Tatmadaw may target telecommunications infrastructure, potentially causing localized disruptions. Power outages have occurred in several cities, including Yangon. Electricity disruptions can result in the temporary unavailability of essential services, such as ATMs, petrol stations, and internet and mobile data, and severe commercial and transport disruptions.

Context

The coup occurred February 2021, when military personnel detained several senior NLD members, including Aung San Suu Kyi and then-President Win Myint, on charges of election fraud. The claims lack significant supporting evidence, and the Union Election Commission denied the allegations; international observers have also rejected the claims. Aung San Suu Kyi has received several prison sentences related to various charges, including those of corruption and COVID-19 restriction violations; pro-democracy activists say that the accusations are politically motivated. While ASEAN and other international organizations continue to call for cooperation and an end to the violence, such developments will unlikely achieve progress in the immediate term.

Advice

Exercise extreme caution in Myanmar. Heed all official security instructions. Register and maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Purchase essential items and ensure several days' supply when possible. Collect essential items - including identification and any important legal and travel documents - in a "go-bag" that can be easily accessed. Monitor local developments closely. If a demonstration or fighting occurs nearby, immediately leave the area, seek shelter at a safe, nongovernment building, and stay away from windows.