Ethiopia: Authorities impose gathering restrictions in Gondar city as of April 10 amid elevated tensions in Amhara Region /update 1

Event

Authorities in Gondar City, Amhara Region, are enforcing a ban on public gatherings and demonstrations as of April 10. A night curfew starting from 21:00 has also been imposed on bars and nightclubs and 14:00-06:00 on three-wheel vehicles until further notice. The measure has been implemented following anti-government protests in several Amhara cities and towns over the Ethiopian government's decision to dissolve regional special forces units to integrate into several security structures, including the federal or regional police and the national army. This decision has sharply increased tensions between the federal government and Amhara Special Forces (ASF).

Locals opposed to the measure may stage protests; security personnel will probably move forcefully to disperse any such gatherings that materialize. Fighting between the federal government forces and ASF may also occur if the latter refuses to hand its weapons to authorities. The federal government will likely maintain a heavy army presence, including deploying armored vehicles across the Amhara region, particularly in major cities such as Bahir Dar, Gondar, Dessie, Mota, and Kombolcha, over the coming days. The army may further implement a security lockdown of the affected urban centers by imposing movement restrictions, patrols, and checkpoints. Ongoing security operations may result in travel restrictions and short-term ground transport disruptions. Intermittent internet disruptions are also likely in the coming few days.

Context

The federal government's decision came despite strong criticism, especially from ethnic-Amhara activists and members of the National Movement of the Amhara (NaMA) party, who see the move as a way for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to disarm the ASF so that the neighboring Tigray Region would regain control of occupied disputed territories, (Wolkait) Western Tigray and Raya zone (Southern Tigray). Amhara forces controlled Wolkait and Raya zones in November 2020 following the military confrontation between the federal troops and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) rebels. The ASF fought alongside the national forces against TPLF rebels between 2020-2022.

The federal government and TPLF rebels ended fighting on Nov. 2 after signing a peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa. Several steps have been taken to implement the peace deal, including forming an Interim Regional Administration (IRA) and removing the TPLF from the designated terrorist list. Despite positive trends, key issues remain, including the complete disarmament of the TPLF's forces and the withdrawal of non-government forces (Eritrean troops and Amhara militias) from Tigray territory.

Advice

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Heed the instructions of the security forces. Travel with personal identification documents to facilitate transit through checkpoints. Liaise with trusted local contacts before traveling to or within Amhara region. Reconfirm all transport services before departure. Avoid concentrations of security personnel and travel at night. Plan for possible short-term telecommunication disruptions. Avoid all protests.