09 Oct 2023 | 09:42 AM UTC
Mexico: Tropical Storm Lidia tracking north-northeastward over the North Pacific Ocean towards Nayarit State as of early Oct. 9
TS Lidia tracking north-northeastward over North Pacific Ocean, early Oct. 9. Landfall over Nayarit State, Mexico, late Oct. 10.
Event
Tropical Storm Lidia is tracking north-northeastward over the North Pacific Ocean early Oct. 9. As of 03:00 MDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 725 km (450 miles) west-southwest of Islas Marias.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will track generally northeastwards while strengthening into a category 1 hurricane through early Oct. 10 before strengthening further into a category 2 hurricane and making a close approach to Islas Marias early Oct. 10, passing between the islands. Lidia is forecast to make landfall as a category 2 hurricane over Nayarit State, Mexico, late Oct. 10. After landfall, the storm is likely to weaken rapidly as it tracks northeast across northern Nayarit State before dissipating over far southern Durango State early Oct. 11. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.
As of early Oct. 9, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Hurricane warning: Islas Marias
Hurricane watch: Playa Perula to Mazatlan
Tropical storm watch: Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya and Manzanillo to Playa Perula
Hurricane conditions are likely to reach the coast within the warning area Oct. 10. Forecast models indicate rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across Nayarit, southern Sinaloa, and coastal Jalisco states in western Mexico through Oct. 11.
A dangerous storm surge is forecast to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where Lidia makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula over the coming days. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Authorities in Nayarit State suspended all classes and government services from Oct. 9, while authorities in the municipalities of La Paz and Los Cabos in Baja California Sur State suspended schools Oct. 9.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the storm's path, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
