North Atlantic: Tropical Storm Philippe tracking northward south-southwest of Bermuda as of late Oct. 5 /update 4

Event

Tropical Storm Philippe is tracking northward in the North Atlantic Ocean late Oct. 5. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 470 km (290 miles) south-southwest of Bermuda.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it tracks generally northward towards Bermuda, passing just west of the island the afternoon of Oct. 6. Philippe is forecast to maintain its strength and continue northward through Oct. 7 before making landfall over Maine, US, early Oct. 8. The storm will likely then track north-northwestward across southern Quebec Province, Canada, and dissipate over the central part of the province late Oct. 8. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late Oct. 5, authorities have issued a tropical storm warning across Bermuda. Tropical storm conditions are likely in Bermuda early Oct. 6. Officials will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are likely over Bermuda Oct. 6. The rainfall could result in flash flooding. Rainfall of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches), with local amounts of 12.5 cm (5 inches), is forecast across portions of New York and New England in US as well as southeast Canada Oct. 7-8. Isolated to scattered urban and flash flooding may occur.

Large swells are affecting Bermuda but will begin to increase further early Oct. 6 as Philippe approaches the island. Swells are also affecting portions of the southeastern US coast and will spread northward along the east coast to Atlantic Canada over the coming days. These swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Schools in Bermuda are closed and ferries, except the Pink Route, are suspended Oct. 6. The Causeway, L.F. Wade International Airport (BDA), bus services, and government offices are scheduled to operate normally Oct. 6.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center