India: Ongoing farmers' ralllies likely to persist nationwide through at least early May /update 1

Unionized farmers will likely continue their ongoing protest campaigns across India through at least early May to demand various concessions, including long-standing grievances with existing agricultural policies. In recent days, several demonstrations have occurred in multiple urban centers, including a rally by hundreds of Tamil Nadu-based farmers at New Delhi's Jantar Mantar observatory. Rail blockades in northern regions, such as Haryana and Punjab, have severely disrupted train services. As of April 24, rail service delays of up to nine hours have occurred in several areas, including Ajmer, Amritsar, Kolkata, and New Delhi; additionally, train cancellations have impacted major urban centers including Ambala, Amritsar, Chandigarh, Hisar, Jalandhar, and Pathankot. Activists had previously threatened to launch an indefinite protest campaign until their demands were met.

The upcoming general elections, slated to occur from April 19 to June 1, will likely exacerbate these protests in frequency and intensity. Further gatherings of varying types, including marches toward the National Capital Region (NCR) and railway blockades, are highly likely over the coming weeks. Potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Well-attended gatherings have previously drawn tens of thousands of participants.

Authorities will likely monitor any such gatherings and could use force, including baton charges and tear gas, to disperse unruly crowds. Officials may implement enhanced security restrictions based on operational needs, including temporary public movement and telecommunications measures. Clashes between police and activists, as well as between members of opposing sociopolitical groups, cannot be ruled out. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are likely.