Mexico: Adverse weather conditions forecast across eastern and central regions through at least early April 23

Adverse weather is forecast across much of eastern and central Mexico through at least early April 23. A prefrontal trough associated with a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico will bring heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across central, eastern, and northeastern regions. Storms may be accompanied by strong wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail. Rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are expected in parts of Puebla and Veracruz states, 5-7.5 cm (2-3 inches) in Oaxaca and Chiapas, and 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) across the rest of the affected area. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes.

The front will also drive a surge of cold winds known as a Norte event, which will bring strong gusts and rough seas along the Gulf of Mexico coast and the Gulf and Isthmus of Tehuantepec; winds gusting up to 80 kph (50 mph) and waves up to 3 meters (10 feet) are possible in affected areas. A cold air mass drawn in by the front will lead to a drop in temperatures across the affected area.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather may also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec coasts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.