Increasing Potential for Disruptions from Likely Volcanic Eruption in US State of Alaska

The volcano’s summit vent has not erupted for several thousand years, but violent sub-Plinian eruptions occurred at the Crater Peak in 1953 and 1992; it is here that any forthcoming eruption will likely take place. These previous explosive eruptions lasted between 3-7 hours and produced ash columns rising up to over 15,240 meters (50,000 feet). Ashfall deposits of 0.3-0.6 cm (0.125-0.25 inches) were recorded in Anchorage and caused the closure of airports, offices, and schools, as well as other disruptions to daily life. Cleanup costs for the 1992 eruption, which consisted of three separate explosions over four months, were estimated at around USD 2 million.

While scientists have not given an exact timeframe for when another eruption may occur, such an event could take place within a matter of weeks or months. Any eruption will likely be preceded by longer volcanic tremors; the 1992 volcanic tremor started three weeks prior to the eruption. Mount Spurr is one of the most closely monitored volcanoes in Alaska, and authorities will probably have sufficient time to issue relevant alerts and directives in advance.

Mount Spurr is located in a remote area, and most communities lie far enough away from the volcano that the impact of mudslides and pyroclastic flows should be limited in all but the worst-case scenarios. However, assuming it has similar intensity to those of 1953 and 1992, an eruption could have significant impacts on air and ground transport, health, and other services in the greater Anchorage area.

Ash and other volcanic material will likely prompt closures at Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport (TNC) and other aviation facilities in the area. Many remote communities rely heavily on air cargo being flown into local airports due to the limited road network in the region; ash clouds could significantly hamper the delivery of critical supplies. The ash could also spread for many miles, reaching into other parts of Alaska and parts of northwestern Canada depending on the prevailing wind direction. It is estimated that around 60,000 flights pass over Alaska daily, and the ash cloud could lead to many having to alter their paths and possibly lead to cancelations further afield. Ash and harmful gases may lead to school and office closures and other service disruptions in south-central Alaska.

Taking steps to prepare now will likely help to minimize potential impacts should an eruption occur. Those operating in the region should closely monitor the situation at the volcano, paying particular attention to any rise in alert level, and should heed any directives issued by local authorities in the event of any further increase in volcanic activity. 

The following is general guidance for enhancing personal safety while in areas at risk of volcanic eruptions:

• Contact airlines for updated flight information, and confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport. Those traveling to the region in the coming months should ensure they have travel insurance that protects them from cancelations due to flight disruptions related to volcanic activity.
• Be familiar with evacuation and shelter plans. If available, sign up for notifications on the local community warning systems. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials. Keep important documents in waterproof containers.
• In the event of an eruption, limit your time outdoors. Wear long sleeves, pants, and protective eyewear as well as a mask to protect yourself from ash, which can cause serious skin and respiratory irritation.
• Try to avoid areas with heavy ash accumulations. If operating in areas affected by the ash cloud, consider remaining indoors in air-conditioned facilities when possible.
• Avoid areas sheltered from wind, valleys located at the base of the volcano, and areas downwind of the volcano.
• Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas close to the volcano. If possible, avoid driving over ash. If it is unavoidable, maintain a speed below 55 kph (35 mph). Avoid fresh lava flows, and look well ahead before crossing any valley or bridge.
• Limit your time outdoors. Wear long sleeves, pants, and protective eyewear as well as a mask to protect yourself from ash (if you do not have a mask, a scarf will also work). Ash can cause serious skin and respiratory irritation. Stay away from lava flows; look well ahead before crossing any valley or bridge. If possible, avoid driving over ash. If it is unavoidable, maintain a speed below 55 kph (35 mph).
• Ash may clog filters and intake systems, affecting heaters, ventilation systems, and vehicles. In impacted areas, check for gas leaks, electrical damage, and plumbing issues, and clear ash from roofs cautiously to avoid collapse or injury.

Learn more about leveraging our industry-leading regional and subject matter experts for intelligence that helps your organization stay ahead of risks to your people and operations.