Kenya: Opposition leader to challenge election results /update 8

Event

On Wednesday, August 16, opposition leader Raila Odinga announced that he would challenge the results of the recent presidential election in the Supreme Court. During a press conference in Nairobi, Odinga claimed that the electronic tally system of the August 8 vote had been rigged, which allowed President Uhuru Kenyatta to win. Odinga called for peaceful protests and said that the opposition “will not accept [the results] and move on” from the election. Further protests will likely take place in urban centers across the country, particularly in Nairobi and Kisumu. Expect an increased security presence around any demonstrations that occur.

Context

Relative calm was restored in several restive parts of Kenya as of Monday, August 14, following violent post-election protests. Multiple businesses reopened on Monday - after having been shuttered for several days amid the unrest - in Nairobi and other cities despite Odinga's calls for a general strike. However, tensions remain high across the country. At least 24 people have been killed in post-election violence since August 9, according to a disputed report published by the Kenyan National Commission on Human Rights

Violent protests broke out in opposition strongholds on August 9, shortly after Odinga claimed the preliminary results of the August 8 general election as fraudulent. Odinga claims that hackers logged into the national election database and manipulated the results, tying the tampering to the July 31 murder of a prominent election official responsible for the computerized voting system. The Kenyan electoral commission has maintained the integrity of the vote and denies claims of tampering, although the commission admitted there had been an "unsuccessful" hacking attempt. On Thursday, August 10, observers from the African Union (AU) and the Commonwealth expressed satisfaction that the electoral process was organized in a credible and transparent manner. More violence broke out after incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta was officially declared the winner of the presidential election on August 11. Odinga has thus far refused to concede defeat.

Previous elections in Kenya have been widely contested and marred with violence. Kenya's primary elections, which took place between April 13 and April 30, were marked by violence and numerous irregularities. More than 60 people were charged with electoral offenses following chaos and violence during party primaries. In Nairobi, one person was killed and another seriously injured during clashes between rival candidates. Furthermore, the 2007 presidential elections were marred by major violence, resulting in an estimated 1200 deaths. Protests after elections in 2013, which were undermined by claims of fraud after many of the electronic voting systems failed, resulted in several deaths.

Advice

Individuals in Kenya are advised to avoid all public gatherings (particularly political events) due to the risk of violence and to monitor the situation. Be prepared to shelter in place in the event the security situation in the country deteriorates (stock up on food, water, and other necessities). Additionally, those undertaking long-distance travel within the country are advised to consider traveling via plane (rather than by road) to minimize exposure to security threats.

On separate note, due to the significant, generalized terrorist threat, individuals present in Kenya are advised to remain vigilant, to report any suspicious objects or behavior to the relevant authorities, and to be particularly cautious when visiting sites deemed particularly likely to be targeted in an attack (government buildings, places of worship, tourist sites, etc.).