Kenya: Opposition warns of potential fraud in August 8 election

Event

Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga announced to supporters during a rally near Nairobi on Friday, July 28, that the incumbent party cannot win the August 8 election without rigging the vote. Odinga has made similar announcements in the past, contributing to widespread protests and political violence. The statement may increase the likelihood of unrest leading up to the upcoming election.

Context

General elections will take place across Kenya on Wednesday, August 8, with the electoral commission scheduled to announce the preliminary results before August 15. The Supreme Court will then be given time to consider any appeals related to the initial results, with the final results expected to be released before October 5. Increased security is to be anticipated across the country (particularly in major urban hubs) in the coming weeks as the campaign period, which began on May 28, continues. Political rallies and demonstrations are expected, and outbreaks of violence cannot be ruled out.

A prominent election official, Christopher Msando, was tortured and killed on July 31, nine days before the Kenyan presidential elections. Msando was responsible for the computerized voting system that will be used in next week's elections, causing some to fear his murder may indicate an attempt to tamper with or otherwise disrupt the vote. The investigation into his death is ongoing and no arrests have been made, according to a government spokesperson. Msando was found a day after police killed an intruder at Deputy President William Ruto's home during an 18-hour siege. Meanwhile, a key political opposition group has alleged that President Uhuru Kenyatta is attempting to rig the elections, a claim that the president has denied.

Kenya's primary elections, which took place between April 13 and April 30, were marked by violence and numerous irregularities. More than 60 people were charged with electoral offenses following chaos and violence during party primaries. In Nairobi, one person was killed and another seriously injured during clashes between rival candidates. The Kenyan National Police Service has announced plans to recruit 10,000 additional police officers ahead of the August 8 elections.

Advice

Individuals in Kenya are advised to avoid all public gatherings (particularly polling stations or political events) due to the risk of violence and to monitor the situation. Additionally, those undertaking long-distance travel within the country are advised to consider traveling via plane (rather than ground travel) to minimize exposure to security threats.

On separate note, due to the significant terrorist threat, individuals present in Kenya are advised to remain vigilant, to report any suspicious objects or behavior to the relevant authorities, and to be particularly cautious when visiting sites deemed particularly likely to be targeted in an attack (government buildings, places of worship, tourist sites, etc.).