Rwanda: Kagame inauguration in Kigali August 18 /update 2

Event

President Paul Kagame is set to be inaugurated for another seven-year term on Friday, August 18, in Kigali. The ceremony will be held at Amahoro National Stadium. Twenty Heads of State, several dignitaries, and thousands of locals are expected to attend. Increased security will be deployed in Kigali on the day, particularly the area surrounding the inauguration site, and transportation disruptions linked to heightened security measures as well as general crowd congestion are to be anticipated.

Major unrest surrounding the inauguration is unlikely. Demonstrations require a government permit, and a generally strict security environment (especially in Kigali) further dissuades civil unrest. Moreover, President Kagame enjoys widespread domestic support. Nonetheless, some post-election tensions remain as opposition elements in the country criticize alleged irregularities and lack of transparency, and isolated clashes cannot be ruled out.

Context

Incumbent President Paul Kagame secured his third seven-year term in the August 4 presidential elections, winning with a landslide 98.65 percent in final provisional results announced on August 5. The results come as little surprise; Kagame was widely expected to win over opposition Rwanda Green Party leader Frank Habineza, who secured only 0.47 percent of votes. Leading the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), Kagame also won both the 2003 and 2010 elections with more than 90 percent of the vote. Despite potential dissatisfaction over the landslide victory linked to concerns over irregularities and lack of political freedom surrounding the elections, the chance of protest and civil unrest remains minimal.

Kagame represents peace, stability, and economic growth for many Rwandans, after leading the country through the aftermath of the 1994 genocide that left an estimated 800,000 to 1 million civilians dead. Kagame is also credited with improving the country’s infrastructure and business climate over the years. Kagame enjoys widespread popularity both in Rwanda and within the Rwandan diaspora abroad, who were able to vote in the election. A constitutional amendment was passed with 98 percent of the vote in 2015, which could allow for Kagame to stay in power until 2034.

Despite his genuine popularity, activists point to a lack of civil liberties and freedom of the press under Kagame, and the Rwandan president has been accused of gross human rights violations.

Advice

Individuals in Rwanda are advised to avoid all large gatherings as a precaution, cooperate with local authorities, and anticipate severe transportation disruptions in Kigali. Monitor any further developments to the situation via local and international media.