United States: Atlantic hurricane season expected to be above-normal /update 1

Event

On Wednesday, August 9, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its 2017 Atlantic hurricane season predictions. According to the new forecasts, there is a 60 percent chance that the season will be above-average, with 14-19 named storms and two to five major hurricanes. The NOAA said that it could be the most active season since 2010 and that peak season (August through October) has just started.

Context

The North Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and runs until the end of November. Powerful storms can hit the southeast - e.g. the Gulf of Mexico and Florida - and the entire eastern seaboard throughout this period. The country’s southwest (southern California as well as Arizona and New Mexico) is also sometimes hit by hurricanes and remnants of storms originating in the Pacific Ocean; the Eastern Pacific hurricane season officially begins on May 15 and also lasts through late November. The largest concentration of storms typically occurs between August and October in both regions. Early storms have already been reported this year, i.e. Tropical Storm Arlene - detected in the Atlantic in late April - and Tropical Storm Adrian - which ran along the Pacific coasts of Guatemala and Mexico. Neither storm made landfall.

Hurricanes and tropical storms have the potential to cause major damage, loss of life, widespread power outages, and travel disruptions. Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast - notably the city of New Orleans - in August 2005, leaving some 1300 dead and causing nearly USD 108 billion in damages. More recently, in October 2012, "Superstorm Sandy" swept up the East Coast, leaving 235 dead and USD 75 billion worth of damage in its wake.

Advice

Individuals present in the region are advised to stay abreast of information regarding storms via the US-based National Hurricane Center and/or local media. In the event of a storm, individuals present in areas forecast to be affected should stock up on enough food and water to last several days, follow all instructions issued by local authorities, and distance themselves from the coast and other bodies of water. If an evacuation order is given, leave immediately; otherwise, remain indoors until authorities have indicated that the storm has passed; wait for this declaration, keeping in mind that the "eye" of the storm is marked by calm, clear conditions but is followed by the most powerful and destructive part of the storm.