New Zealand: Damaging storm over South Island Feb. 1-6

Event

New Zealand is at risk of experiencing a very damaging cyclone as several storm systems are currently combining over the island as of Wednesday, January 31. Tropical Cyclone Fehi, which has passed off the western coast of New Caledonia on January 30, and remains a category one cyclone, is forecast to combine with other systems in the Tasman Sea, leading it to rapidly intensify and grow in size.

On Thursday, February 1, the system is expected to cross South Island as a category two/three cyclone. Wind gusts of up to 170 km/h (105 mph) are expected in South Island’s Alpine region and western coast. Heavy rainfall is also expected during this period, with 10 to 20 cm (4 to 8 in) of precipitation forecast over South Island, while 20 to 40 cm (8 to 16 in) are to be anticipated over the Alps and western coast. High tides are also likely, which may cause flooding in coastal areas, combined with heavy precipitations.

The system is forecast to move away from New Zealand on Friday, February 2, dragging freezing air and likely causing the island to be hit with snow over the weekend, February 3-4. Up to 40 cm (16 in) of snow is likely over the Alps.

From February 1-6, North Island - notably around Wellington - is expected to be inflicted by heavy rains and strong, possibly damaging, winds.

Context

One person was killed in early January 2018 as a storm battered North Island, tearing off roofs and bringing down trees and power lines. Major roads were shut as two months’ worth of rain pummeled Auckland in 24 hours.

Advice

Individuals in affected areas are advised to keep abreast of weather forecasts and adhere to any orders issued by the local authorities.