Belarus: Anti-government protests and labor actions likely to continue through at least the end of January /update 13

Event

Opposition activists and workers will likely continue holding anti-government demonstrations, go-slow protests, and labor strikes across Belarus through at least January as part of their ongoing protest campaign denouncing President Alexander Lukashenko's landslide victory in the nation's Aug. 9 presidential election. Activists have issued various demands but are mainly seeking Lukashenko's resignation, free and fair elections, and the release of political prisoners. Disruptive gatherings of various sizes have been taking place in urban centers nationwide, including Minsk, Brest, Gomel, Hrodna, Lida, and Vitebsk, as well as in smaller towns.

Opposition activists typically hold major demonstrations each Sunday in addition to daily rallies, marches, and blockades in cities nationwide. Actions in Minsk are generally the largest and most disruptive; tens of thousands of activists regularly attend the Sunday demonstrations. Protest locations in Minsk include the Minsk-Hero City Obelisk, Independence Square, Freedom Square, and Victors Avenue. A heavy police presence and roadblocks are often deployed in these areas as security forces attempt to prevent protesters from gathering. Activists in Minsk have staged large simultaneous protests in all of the city's neighborhoods. They have also staged regular go-slow protests on major roads during rush hour periods, including 1st Ring Road, Krasnaya Avenue, Independence Avenue, and Partizanskiy Avenue. Additionally, the families and supporters of arrested activists continue to gather outside the detention center on Okrestina Street to protest arrests. Large protests are particularly likely following any significant developments.

Employees at various enterprises across the country have engaged in numerous strikes since the start of the protest movement. Further coordinated and wildcat strikes are likely. State employees and workers at various enterprises across the country have been refusing to work in solidarity with the protest movement. Organizers assert that the work stoppages will continue until protesters' demands are met; participating employees and their supporters will likely stage rallies outside their places of employment and the government ministry responsible for their industry, or join opposition gatherings in urban centers during strikes.

Authorities have deployed significant numbers of security personnel in Minsk and other major cities to respond to the gatherings. Large crowds and associated security measures will likely prompt transport disruptions near protest locations. Riot police have used tear gas, rubber bullets, flash grenades, and warning shots using live rounds to disperse demonstrators at previous actions. At least three protesters have been killed and more than 10,000 arrested since the wave of demonstrations began. Mass arrests and clashes are likely at protests; reports suggest security forces may deliberately target journalists and bystanders. There is a greater likelihood of violence if rival activists gather in the same area.

Disruptions to mobile and fixed-line internet services are possible nationwide until the protests abate; authorities in Belarus have restricted internet access in the past in order to disrupt the activities of opposition groups.

Context

The Central Electoral Commission confirmed Lukashenko's sixth term in office with over 80 percent of the vote in what activists are calling a rigged election. The leading opposition candidate, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, claimed victory on Aug. 14 and subsequently created the "Coordination Council," an organization led by major opposition figures with the goal of removing Lukashenko from office.

Police action against protesters, including preemptive arrests and roadblocks, has increased sharply since early September. Lukashenko has also instructed state security forces to clamp down on unauthorized opposition gatherings. Although there was little evidence of an immediate crackdown, authorities have since adopted an increasingly confrontational approach in the face of persistent unauthorized demonstrations. Many leading opposition figures have either fled the country or are being detained by the authorities. Plainclothes police officers have also detained numerous activists at home or work on various charges.

Advice

Avoid all rallies due to the potential for violence. Heed instructions of security services and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Reconfirm all travel bookings and business appointments that may be impacted by strikes; plan accordingly for supply chain disruptions. Check public transport schedules and local traffic conditions for disruptions and allow extra time for travel in major Belarusian cities. Do not display any sign of political affiliation and be discreet when discussing the regime, including on social media. Do not take photographs of protests, members of the security forces, or military traffic. Allow additional time to navigate immigration and exit procedures to allow for potential excessive scrutiny of identification and visa documentation.