Indonesia: Further protests by Islamist activists likely nationwide through December /update 1

Event

Islamist activists, especially members of the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI), will likely stage protests through the end of December to denounce the detention of high-profile cleric Rizieq Shihab by police for alleged coronavirus disease (COVID-19) health protocol violations. The largest protests will probably occur in Jakarta, including a rally outside the State Palace from 1300 Dec. 18. Other likely protest venues in the capital include FPI's headquarters in Petamburan, Tanah Abang, and the Jakarta Metro Police (Polda Metro Jaya). Demonstrations have also occurred outside police offices and at popular gathering sites like prominent mosques in Bandung, West Java Province's Ciamis Regency, and Medan. Protests may also take place in other cities nationwide, including Makassar and Surabaya. Hundreds to thousands of people may participate in any gathering.

Authorities will almost certainly increase security, including erecting roadblocks and security cordons, at any protest sites. Localized road closures and business disruptions are likely during any gathering, especially if activists occupy or blockade any streets. Groups that oppose FPI and Shihab may stage counterrallies near any demonstrations. Clashes between protesters and security forces or between opposing groups of activists are possible. Mass arrests may occur if security forces consider any demonstrator to violate COVID-19 restrictions.

Context

Officials claim the health rule breaches occurred during a Nov. 14 event that Shihab organized at FPI's headquarters in Jakarta. Shihab's arrest came days after a Dec. 7 incident in which police officers shot and killed six alleged FPI members. FPI activists claim that authorities are unfairly processing the case against Shihab without also prosecuting other instances of health control breaches in Indonesia, including during local election campaigns. Various civic groups have held demonstrations against FPI and Shihab, claiming that the FPI is not tolerant of other religions and does not adhere to COVID-19 health protocols.

Advice

Avoid any protest sites and their surrounding areas due to increased security measures and possible clashes. Plan for localized transport and business disruptions. If violence occurs nearby, immediately depart the area and seek shelter at a non-government building. Heed all official security and transport advisories.